2208 W Baseline Ave #197 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition 1,500 sqft lot Est $95k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 3-bedroom manufactured home with beautiful mountain views! Inside, you'll find an inviting layout filled with natural light, showcasing soft carpeting underfoot, tile in all the right places, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, and neutral colors. The spacious kitchen is complete with ample cabinetry, tile backsplash, granite countertops, an island, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Get a good night's rest in the main bedroom, offering a closet with mirrored doors and a full bathroom with double sinks and a separate shower & tub. Inside laundry area for added convenience, with plenty of space for storage. Out back, you'll have a

Key facts

• Built-in appliances
• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size reported as 1,500 (source: owner)
• HOA & community: Land lease with monthly fee ($897); No association fees included; Community pool and gated access; Community spa (heated); Coin-operated laundry on site; Tennis courts; Fitness center; Biking/walking path; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Sport court(s); Desert front landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Synthetic grass in back; Private maintained road; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Primary bathroom with separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hook-ups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.04%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2208 W Baseline Ave #137	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$50,000	$41	91
2208 W Baseline Ave #67	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$110,000	$89	84
2208 W Baseline Ave #9	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	18mo	$135,000	$108	73
3700 S Ironwood Dr #79	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	11mo	$190,000	$152	69
3400 S Ironwood Dr #181	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-5%)	11mo	$85,500	$74	69
2208 W Baseline Ave #56	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+9%)	14mo	$130,000	$98	67
2208 W Baseline Ave #40	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	1mo	$82,000	$78	65
2208 W Baseline Ave #118	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-6%)	16mo	$76,000	$66	65
2208 W Baseline Ave #87	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+11%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	64
3700 S Ironwood Dr Lot 124	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	3mo	$34,990	$33	59
2208 W Baseline Ave #142	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,046 (-14%)	11mo	$70,000	$67	56
2175 W Southern Ave #200	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	13mo	$57,900	$55	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $42,472
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $96,154
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,017

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3454 S Warner Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.38mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #45 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,649	$1.53	43d	1	0.94mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #60 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1371	$2,600	$1.90	1d	1	0.94mi
3000 W Southern Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,719	$2.05	1d	12	1.08mi
2065 W 20th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,850	$1.67	12d	1	1.10mi
2043 S Thunderbird Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,925	$1.43	24d	1	1.22mi
1446 S Palo Verde Dr Unit apache Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,700	$1.40	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $99,000
15. 2026-04-17
    price $99,500
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $11,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $9,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom vanity — slight wear
• Minor ceiling fans — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace carpeting — improves comfort and appearance
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space
• Resale update bathroom vanity — modernizes space
• Resale replace ceiling fans — modernizes space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom vanity · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
ceiling fans · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpeting — improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space ↑
• Resale update bathroom vanity — modernizes space ↑
• Resale replace ceiling fans — modernizes space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $99,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $99,900 ARMLS