204 Pine Forest Dr · Ivanhoe, TX 75979

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition 0.39 ac lot $79/sqft · 38% below area Est $137k · 38% under $1/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Potential investment opportunity, located in the beautiful lake community of Ivanhoe. Come enjoy all the lake life has to offer, just minutes from the water, with some TLC this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom open concept home could make the perfect getaway spot. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Lake community
• Open concept home
• 0.39 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• MINUTES FROM THE WATER
• OPEN CONCEPT HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.5% in Ivanhoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#924 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Woodville ISD (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #563 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodville El (309 students, 81% FRL); Woodville Middle (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 279 students, 75% FRL); Woodville H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 367 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.96%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,470
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -38.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
480 Perdilot Dr	1.23mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-5%)	8mo	$75,000	$73	50
530 W Sherwood Forest Dr W	1.29mi	2/1.5	1,008 (-7%)	12mo	$259,900	$258	42
456 Sherwood Forest Dr N	0.64mi	2/1.5	992 (-8%)	28mo	$174,000	$175	35
455 28th St	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+22%)	10mo	$119,500	$91	35
439 Sherwood Forest Dr N	0.62mi	2/2.0	925 (-14%)	11mo	$245,000	$265	34
466 Galahad Loop	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+24%)	3mo	$199,000	$148	30
1207 Ivanhoe Estates Dr	1.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+22%)	1mo	$145,000	$111	30
178 D Branch Ct	1.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	29
425 23rd St	0.91mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	18mo	$255,000	$213	27
514 Charmaine Dr S	1.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-9%)	18mo	$295,000	$301	26
140 Sherwood Forest Dr	1.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+7%)	23mo	$285,000	$247	25
135 13th St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+18%)	30mo	$155,000	$121	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $62,711
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $171,881
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $174,000 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -39.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75979

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,758/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $281	+0% $257	+5% $233	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $213	+0% $257	+5% $301	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $279	base $257	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $1/mo · $12/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-07-21
   listed $85,000 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Potential investment opportunity, located in the beautiful lake community of Ivanhoe. Come enjoy all the lake life has to offer, just minutes from the water, with some TLC this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom open concept home could make the perfect getaway spot. Schedule your showing today.

2. 2024-04-05
   soldstatus
3. 2008-11-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,758 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,758 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,758
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $2,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $27,000–$48,600 screening

This home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its value. The most impactful updates would be painting, updating the kitchen cabinets, landscaping, and replacing the HVAC system.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are visibly worn and may need to be replaced or refinished.
• Major Bathroom — The bathroom is not visible, but based on the overall condition of the home, it is likely to be in poor condition and may need significant repairs.
• Major Exterior siding — The siding is in poor condition and may need to be replaced or repaired.
• Major Flooring — The flooring is visibly worn and may need to be replaced or refinished.
• Major Interior walls — The walls are in poor condition and may need to be repaired or repainted.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need to be replaced.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and updating the kitchen cabinets — Updating the kitchen cabinets and painting the interior walls can significantly improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Refrigerator and other appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the home more attractive to potential buyers and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodville El Middle Woodville Middle F TX #1,036/1,662 Nat'l #8,750/14,009 High Woodville H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846440
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,581
• Composite: 28.24/100
• National rank: #6800
• State rank: #563 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Ivanhoe

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #924
• US rank: #16451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ivanhoe, TX
• County: Tyler County · 20,375 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 11,273
• Household income: $51,594
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

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Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.40%
• Current HPI: 178.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-21 Listed $85,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,758 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.