2402 Twin Ct · Plum Grove, TX 77372

$179,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 5,312 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY BRAND NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT TWO STORY IN THE FANTASTIC GEMINI COMMUNITY! THREE BEDROOM! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Lovely Front Porch! Spacious and Open Floor Plan with Modern Features at Every Corner! Includes Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, Solid Surface Flooring, Undermount Kitchen Sink, and SO MUCH MORE! Smart Home Equipped with Door Locks, Doorbell, Wifi Enabled Thermostat and Light Switches all Controlled by Touchscreen Panel! Lovely Outdoor Space with Covered Patio! Gemini is a Wonderful Place to Call HOME! Hurry and Call TODAY! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Front porch
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLID SURFACE FLOORING
• UNDERMOUNT KITCHEN SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,190 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,990
• List price: $179,990
• Delta: 2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,123
• Equity at exit: $26,837

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,882
• Equity at exit: $15,562

Cash invested: $50,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $179,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,998
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: internet

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,990 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,990 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,990 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,990 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,990 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,990 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,990 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,990 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,990 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $179,990 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    LOVELY BRAND NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT TWO STORY IN THE FANTASTIC GEMINI COMMUNITY! THREE BEDROOM! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Lovely Front Porch! Spacious and Open Floor Plan with Modern Features at Every Corner! Includes Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, Solid Surface Flooring, Undermount Kitchen Sink, and SO MUCH MORE! Smart Home Equipped with Door Locks, Doorbell, Wifi Enabled Thermostat and Light Switches all Controlled by Touchscreen Panel! Lovely Outdoor Space with Covered Patio! Gemini is a Wonderful Place to Call HOME! Hurry and Call TODAY! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

15. 2026-04-09
    price $189,990 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    LOVELY BRAND NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT TWO STORY IN THE FANTASTIC GEMINI COMMUNITY! THREE BEDROOM! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Lovely Front Porch! Spacious and Open Floor Plan with Modern Features at Every Corner! Includes Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, Solid Surface Flooring, Undermount Kitchen Sink, and SO MUCH MORE! Smart Home Equipped with Door Locks, Doorbell, Wifi Enabled Thermostat and Light Switches all Controlled by Touchscreen Panel! Lovely Outdoor Space with Covered Patio! Gemini is a Wonderful Place to Call HOME! Hurry and Call TODAY! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $191,990 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    LOVELY BRAND NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT TWO STORY IN THE FANTASTIC GEMINI COMMUNITY! THREE BEDROOM! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Lovely Front Porch! Spacious and Open Floor Plan with Modern Features at Every Corner! Includes Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, Solid Surface Flooring, Undermount Kitchen Sink, and SO MUCH MORE! Smart Home Equipped with Door Locks, Doorbell, Wifi Enabled Thermostat and Light Switches all Controlled by Touchscreen Panel! Lovely Outdoor Space with Covered Patio! Gemini is a Wonderful Place to Call HOME! Hurry and Call TODAY! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,082
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $191,990 HARMLS