408 Fairway Dr · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $147k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Everything is in perfect order including recent updates of new: vinyl windows, siding & gutters, appliances, water softener. Heat pump new in 2002 and new septic on extra lot in 1999. Nice kitchen with all appliance included, nice laundry area includes washer/dryer, large living rm w/ wood burning f/p that has blowers & glass doors plus propane back up heater. Deck on back of house. one & one half car garage w/ auto opener. Very well taken care of home. Lot size & room dim. are approx. & rounded down.

Key facts

• 10x16 shed
• Fenced in back yard
• Built 1992

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• 10X16 SHED
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $130,000 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,028
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 N Cheyenne Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,328 (+7%)	9mo	$144,000	$108	65
323 Fairway Dr	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-6%)	24mo	$139,000	$118	63
608 Apache	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,176 (-6%)	22mo	$109,900	$93	57
327 W Green Valley Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	5mo	$178,000	$127	55
205 S Nightingale Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,253 (+1%)	15mo	$135,000	$108	52
205 N Bend Dr	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-10%)	7mo	$138,000	$123	47
602 Tongie Pt	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,371 (+10%)	10mo	$32,000	$23	47
210 W Lansing Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (+9%)	10mo	$209,000	$154	44
906 Sequoia Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	16mo	$156,000	$130	42
907 Eagle Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (+11%)	21mo	$101,000	$73	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,138
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,571
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $736/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Church St Horseshoe Bend, AR	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $137,000 Active
2. 2024-10-01
   soldstatus $125,510
3. 2013-11-22
   soldstatus $52,000
4. 2012-07-12
   soldstatus $50,000
5. 2012-07-10
   soldstatus $50,000 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Everything is in perfect order including recent updates of new: vinyl windows, siding & gutters, appliances, water softener. Heat pump new in 2002 and new septic on extra lot in 1999. Nice kitchen with all appliance included, nice laundry area includes washer/dryer, large living rm w/ wood burning f/p that has blowers & glass doors plus propane back up heater. Deck on back of house. one & one half car garage w/ auto opener. Very well taken care of home. Lot size & room dim. are approx. & rounded down.

6. 2012-06-20
   historical 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Everything is in perfect order including recent updates of new: vinyl windows, siding & gutters, appliances, water softener. Heat pump new in 2002 and new septic on extra lot in 1999. Nice kitchen with all appliance included, nice laundry area includes washer/dryer, large living rm w/ wood burning f/p that has blowers & glass doors plus propane back up heater. Deck on back of house. one & one half car garage w/ auto opener. Very well taken care of home. Lot size & room dim. are approx. & rounded down.

7. 2012-04-13
   listed $69,500 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Everything is in perfect order including recent updates of new: vinyl windows, siding & gutters, appliances, water softener. Heat pump new in 2002 and new septic on extra lot in 1999. Nice kitchen with all appliance included, nice laundry area includes washer/dryer, large living rm w/ wood burning f/p that has blowers & glass doors plus propane back up heater. Deck on back of house. one & one half car garage w/ auto opener. Very well taken care of home. Lot size & room dim. are approx. & rounded down.

8. 1990-08-01
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$736
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $23
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $2,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+204.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $137,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $125,510 Public Records
• 2013-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-10 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CARMLS
• 2012-06-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listed $69,500 CARMLS
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $736 · +300.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.