4 D Pine St · Pine Lake Park, NJ 08757

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition $486/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated 2 bedroom unit in Cedar Glen Homes. Move right in! Renovated from floor to ceiling in 2022. Master bedroom fits a king-sized bed and 2nd bedroom has an add'l large closet. Custom kitchen with recessed lighting, tile backsplash, granite countertops, extra cabinets, pantry, & breakfast bar with stools. Bathroom has walk-in Dreamline vinyl shower & dual shower heads, tiled walls & floors. Large LG washer & dryer. All appliances are LG. New doors, windows, & blinds. The sunroom is filled with light from 10 windows. Entire home has Mohawk laminate floors. Extra-large concrete patio with driveway paved in 2024. 18,000 BTU Friedrich AC unit cools t

Key facts

• Built 1965
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee of $486 monthly; Association covers trash, common areas, fire/liability, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, and water; Part of Cedar Glen Homes association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Condo (attached, cooperative ownership)
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Low-e window coating

Interior

• Kitchen: Countertop range; Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Multiple air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds/shades; Light fixtures; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; AC units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 507 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,144/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.90%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,086
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 71.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9D Cypress St	0.12mi	2/1.0	—	1mo	$125,000	—	81
1 B Cedar St	0.10mi	2/1.0	—	3mo	$78,000	—	80
8 A Cedar St	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	—	2mo	$120,000	—	79
5 Cypress St Unit C	0.16mi	2/1.0	900	2mo	$70,000	$78	79
2 Maple St Unit B	0.41mi	2/1.0	—	2mo	$59,000	—	66
2025 7th Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	—	0mo	$412,500	—	62
2000 Seventh Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400	1mo	$550,000	$393	55
212 Rivers Edge Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,112	0mo	$690,000	$327	53
2016 Seventh Ave	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,722	2mo	$869,999	$320	51
2267 Midway Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378	3mo	$500,000	$363	49
1816 5th Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,415	3mo	$495,000	$350	46
310 Ashford Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	—	3mo	$575,000	—	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $31,242
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $101,780
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,003	-5% $947	+0% $892	+5% $837	+10% $782
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $768	+0% $892	+5% $1,016	+10% $1,141
Rate	-1.0pp $973	-0.5pp $933	base $892	+0.5pp $851	+1.0pp $809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	44d	1	0.77mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	0d	1	0.79mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	0.94mi
1923 Whitesville Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1576	$3,750	$2.38	18d	1	1.00mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.33mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $160,000 Active 821-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $160,000 Active 1160-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,018
• − Management: −$3,018
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $9,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,171
• After-tax cash flow: $8,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Lake Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $160,000 MOMLS