1155 Bruceville Rd · Keysville, VA 23954

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1988 1.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1.33 acre lot
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#261 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince Edward County Public School District (town): math 25% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 131 in VA (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Prince Edward Elementary (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #953 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 808 students, 100% FRL); Prince Edward Middle (math 23% / reading 47%, grade F, #327 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 544 students, 98% FRL); Prince Edward County High (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #310 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 535 students, 101% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Prince Edward County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Prince Edward County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.44%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1822 Baughan Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+14%)	10mo	$205,500	$225	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $26,855
• Equity at exit: $22,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $66,521
• Equity at exit: $35,706

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23954

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $337	+0% $320	+5% $303	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $287	+0% $320	+5% $353	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $333	base $320	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$777
• After-tax cash flow: $3,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince Edward County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103060
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,482
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6221
• State rank: #126 of 131 in VA

Livability — Keysville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #9138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,364

Population outlook (Prince Edward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 24,161 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 23,194 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 22,292 · -8.6%
• By 2075: 20,854 · -14.5%
• By 2100: 19,030 · -22.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 40%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince Edward

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.2% · R 50.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.6 2020: D+5.6 2016: D+5.4 2012: D+12.8 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Current HPI: 141.157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $93 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.