5416 W Cougar Ln · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$123,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2017 8,407 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2 bed 2 bath singlewide completely refurbished. This split floor plan is spacious with an open floor plan. Brand new kitchen appliances will be installed The owner has financing available for qualified buyers.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• No lot rent
• No hoa fees

Tags

• NO HOA FEES
• NO LOT RENT
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Private parking; Unpaved parking areas
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cleared, level lot; Paved road access; Storage structure; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Crawl space basement

🏗️ New construction. The $123,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $95,872.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 642 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.71%
• DSCR: 3.26
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,872
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5416 W Cougar Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	8mo	$103,000	$115	93
5339 W Cougar Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	840 (-6%)	13mo	$60,000	$71	75
5350 W Bandy Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	825 (-8%)	19mo	$80,000	$97	67
5150 W Evita Ln	0.28mi	2/1.0	912 (+2%)	16mo	$98,000	$107	66
5674 W Grovepark Rd	0.52mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	0mo	$142,000	$148	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $56,758
• Equity at exit: $14,295

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $142,643
• Equity at exit: $8,289

Cash invested: $26,844 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 642
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $864

Max offer price $95,872

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,161	+0% $1,134	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,080
Rent	-10% $953	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,134	+5% $1,225	+10% $1,316
Rate	-1.0pp $1,183	-0.5pp $1,159	base $1,134	+0.5pp $1,109	+1.0pp $1,084

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,968
• Closing costs: $2,876
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6185 W Riverbend Rd Dunnellon, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,300	$2.40	14d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $123,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $123,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $123,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-05-28
   status Pending
9. 2026-05-27
   listed $123,000 Active
10. 2026-04-04
    historical
11. 2026-01-27
    listed $130,000 Active
12. 2025-10-20
    soldstatus $103,000 Closed 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 2 bath singlewide completely refurbished. This split floor plan is spacious with an open floor plan. Brand new kitchen appliances will be installed The owner has financing available for qualified buyers.

13. 2025-09-29
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 2 bath singlewide completely refurbished. This split floor plan is spacious with an open floor plan. Brand new kitchen appliances will be installed The owner has financing available for qualified buyers.

14. 2025-09-26
    listed $99,900 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 2 bath singlewide completely refurbished. This split floor plan is spacious with an open floor plan. Brand new kitchen appliances will be installed The owner has financing available for qualified buyers.

15. 2023-11-21
    historical
16. 2023-11-06
    price $82,000
17. 2023-10-31
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2015-08-27
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,370
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$479
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,789
• Taxable income: $12,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,088
• After-tax cash flow: $10,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+355.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — RACC
• 2026-05-27 Listed $123,000 RACC
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Sold (MLS) $103,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-31 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,680 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.