3112 Gordon Ct · East Lake-Orient Park, FL 33619

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1998 4,080 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• 4,080 sq ft lot
• Built 1998

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SHORT DISTANCE FROM KENLY PARK
• ACCESS TO OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,360
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,108
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33619

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,533/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3105 N 75th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	24d	1	0.39mi
2812 N 75th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,000	$1.67	24d	1	0.43mi
2901 Missouri Ave Unit C Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	24d	1	0.44mi
3416 Myrica St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,813	$1.69	21d	1	0.55mi
3716 Ambermist Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1280	$2,120	$1.66	1d	1	0.75mi
3679 Sugarcreek Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,150	$2.07	24d	1	0.80mi
4303 Walis Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	24d	1	0.91mi
5318 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1270	$1,955	$1.54	24d	1	1.03mi
3420 N 55th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.03mi
3611 N 54th St Unit 3 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1126	$1,895	$1.68	2d	1	1.08mi
4481 Rachel Falls Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,350	$1.61	24d	1	1.09mi
3421 N Whittier St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	4d	1	1.26mi
3706 N 52nd St #1 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,500	$1.87	2d	1	1.27mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	4d	1	1.29mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	24d	1	1.29mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	10d	1	1.29mi
3417 Temple St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$1,600	$1.64	24d	1	1.40mi
3212 N 50th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $189,000 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,000 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,000 Active 317 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,000 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,000 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $193,000 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-04-28
    status Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

13. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

14. 2026-03-06
    price $193,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

15. 2026-01-09
    price $195,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

16. 2025-12-05
    price $199,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

17. 2025-11-07
    price $201,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

18. 2025-10-17
    price $205,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

19. 2025-09-26
    price $209,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

20. 2025-09-12
    price $213,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

21. 2025-08-29
    price $217,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

22. 2025-08-15
    price $224,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

23. 2025-07-31
    price $231,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

24. 2025-07-18
    price $238,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

25. 2025-07-03
    listed $250,000 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in the Heart of Tampa Centrally located in Tampa, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional floor plan suited for a variety of needs—whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain, and the home is just a short distance from Kenly Park, offering access to outdoor recreation and green space. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private showing today!

26. 2025-06-06
    historical $1,785
27. 2025-05-01
    listed $1,785
28. 2015-05-12
    soldstatus $954,500
29. 2013-03-06
    soldstatus $58,000
30. 2013-02-28
    soldstatus $58,000 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Long time renter. $1,028 monthly. Tenant pays for water and electric.

31. 2013-01-28
    listed $58,000 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Long time renter. $1,028 monthly. Tenant pays for water and electric.

32. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $50,000
33. 2009-10-21
    listed $59,900
34. 2009-10-21
    historical
35. 2009-01-15
    listed $72,900
36. 2008-12-31
    soldstatus $22,000
37. 2008-07-10
    listed $34,900
38. 2008-03-20
    historical
39. 2008-02-15
    listed $79,900
40. 1998-12-28
    soldstatus $42,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,533
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147
• After-tax cash flow: $3,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Lake-Orient Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Lake-Orient Park, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 45,396
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,396
• Household income: $66,134
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2006.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 28% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 11% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.52%
• Current HPI: 375.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+353.1% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $193,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $201,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $231,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Rental Removed $1,785 RENTLY
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,785 RENTLY
• 2015-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $954,500 Public Records
• 2013-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-28 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-21 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-15 Listed $72,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-31 Sold (MLS) $22,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-10 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-15 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $42,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,533 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.