5641 Midnight Pass Rd · Siesta Key, FL 34242

$300,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 797 sqft · Condo · 113 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

First Floor sunny condo overlooking beautiful landscaped grounds. Short Walk to Siesta Key Beach. Bright Lanai, large bedroom & open floor plan. Laundry located outside unit, short walk to the heated pool. Covered Parking located outside the condo. Furnished and Priced to Sell Pets Allowed 35lb maximum weight Additional pictures coming soon.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered parking
• Landscaped grounds

Tags

• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• SHORT WALK TO SIESTA KEY BEACH
• BRIGHT LANAI
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HEATED POOL
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#512 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-38,559
• Equity at exit: $76,837

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-28,183
• Equity at exit: $84,516

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34242

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$958
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,377

Max offer price $252,205

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 370-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $300,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    listed $310,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    First Floor sunny condo overlooking beautiful landscaped grounds. Short Walk to Siesta Key Beach. Bright Lanai, large bedroom & open floor plan. Laundry located outside unit, short walk to the heated pool. Covered Parking located outside the condo. Furnished and Priced to Sell Pets Allowed 35lb maximum weight Additional pictures coming soon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$6,619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,800
• − Management: −$3,800
• − HOA: −$11,496
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,978
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This first-floor condo is in good condition with a beautiful pool and landscaped grounds. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping upgrades would significantly enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and improve curb appeal.
• Both Replace pool filter — A clean pool filter ensures the pool remains inviting and functional.
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and improve curb appeal. ↑
• Both Replace pool filter — A clean pool filter ensures the pool remains inviting and functional. ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Siesta Key

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #512
• US rank: #9443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Siesta Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,529
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,529
• Household income: $115,967
• Rent vs Own: 9.6% rent · 90.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Current HPI: 237.6266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $310,000 ForSaleByOwner.com