3174 Gorton Lake Rd · Waterville, NY 13485

$189,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1925 0.46 ac lot $169/sqft · 42% below area Est $323k · 42% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The View from this seasonal year-round waterfront home w/ lakefront water rights is spectacular! Huge covered/enclosed patio(2007)w/ wetbar maximizes your outdoor living space, also inc boat dock & shed, septic concrete 1000gal. 19x13 special use room can be reconfigured to accommodate a 3rd bedroom.

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Steps to the water
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE COMMUNITY
• UNOBSTRUCTED LAKE VIEWS
• SPRAWLING COVERED PATIO
• WET BAR
• STEPS TO THE WATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story existing residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lakefront on Gorton Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Open kitchen/family room layout; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#248 in NY, #3,907 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Brookfield Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #605 of 755 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $189k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,297 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.85%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,316
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -41.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $67,698
• Equity at exit: $162,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $219,394
• Equity at exit: $341,445

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13485

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,117/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $112,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-327	-5% $-381	+0% $-434	+5% $-488	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-479	+0% $-434	+5% $-389	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-339	-0.5pp $-386	base $-434	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $189,000 Active 714-char remark
19. 2012-07-31
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2012-07-27
    soldstatus $80,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    The View from this seasonal year-round waterfront home w/ lakefront water rights is spectacular! Huge covered/enclosed patio(2007)w/ wetbar maximizes your outdoor living space, also inc boat dock & shed, septic concrete 1000gal. 19x13 special use room can be reconfigured to accommodate a 3rd bedroom.

21. 2012-06-23
    historical 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    The View from this seasonal year-round waterfront home w/ lakefront water rights is spectacular! Huge covered/enclosed patio(2007)w/ wetbar maximizes your outdoor living space, also inc boat dock & shed, septic concrete 1000gal. 19x13 special use room can be reconfigured to accommodate a 3rd bedroom.

22. 2012-04-13
    listed $94,900 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    The View from this seasonal year-round waterfront home w/ lakefront water rights is spectacular! Huge covered/enclosed patio(2007)w/ wetbar maximizes your outdoor living space, also inc boat dock & shed, septic concrete 1000gal. 19x13 special use room can be reconfigured to accommodate a 3rd bedroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,117 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,117
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$8,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605670
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,610
• Composite: 38.48/100
• National rank: #8474
• State rank: #605 of 755 in NY

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #3907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,715

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.41%
• Current HPI: 291.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-06-09 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2012-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-27 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CNYIS
• 2012-06-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2012-04-13 Listed $94,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,117 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.