4722 Maple Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2001 $64/sqft · at area comps Est $96k · at est. ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the peaceful Los Robles Park, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers easy, low-maintenance living in a desirable 55+ community. The home features a spacious layout, a private primary suite, a bright living area, and a 2-car garage—a rare find in park living. Enjoy quiet surroundings, friendly neighbors, and great community amenities including a sparkling pool and clubhouse. This is a great opportunity to own a charming home in a tranquil setting.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.33%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,853
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: 4.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
899 Tuberose Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	5mo	$99,180	$64	94
4719 Maple Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-3%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	93
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	77
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+3%)	3mo	$76,000	$48	76
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+5%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	74
1401 Menomenee Ln #281	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	5mo	$71,000	$42	71
4555 Underwood Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	63
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	62
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	62
458 Balsawood Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	61
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	58
360 Sapwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+14%)	5mo	$12,000	$7	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $52,839
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $153,786
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.18mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.34mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	43d	1	0.57mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,010	$2.04	13d	8	0.76mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	13d	1	1.25mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	43d	1	1.26mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	13d	1	1.27mi
1424 Calexico Dr Redding, CA	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,949	$1.37	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $99,999 Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Located in the peaceful Los Robles Park, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers easy, low-maintenance living in a desirable 55+ community. The home features a spacious layout, a private primary suite, a bright living area, and a 2-car garage—a rare find in park living. Enjoy quiet surroundings, friendly neighbors, and great community amenities including a sparkling pool and clubhouse. This is a great opportunity to own a charming home in a tranquil setting.

18. 2026-04-07
    price $99,999
19. 2026-02-03
    price $110,000
20. 2025-11-07
    price $137,000
21. 2025-10-09
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 167.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $10,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,600
• After-tax cash flow: $9,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-32.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $99,999 SAOR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $99,999 SAOR
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $110,000 SAOR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $137,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-09 Listed $149,000 SAOR

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $285 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.