409 Baker St · Poughkeepsie, NY 12603

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1921 4,356 sqft lot Est $327k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1921 Colonial in Poughkeepsie offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking for an investment property or primary residence. The home includes 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,276 square feet, with a traditional layout featuring separate living, dining, and kitchen areas. Original woodwork and classic details reflect the home’s age and character. The property needs some TLC, providing a chance to make improvements over time and benefit from your own sweat equity, whether restoring it to your dream home or renovating it for rental use. Exterior features include a covered front porch, rear deck, and detached garage. The . 10-acre lot offers manageable outdoor space, and the arterial

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1921

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith Early Learning Center (297 students, 80% FRL); Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.51%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Worrall Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	2mo	$379,000	$281	77
43 S Grand Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,369 (+7%)	9mo	$350,000	$256	75
19 Lewis Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+6%)	6mo	$330,000	$244	73
164 Thompson St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,262 (-1%)	2mo	$220,000	$174	66
13 Parkview Ter	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,374 (+8%)	4mo	$272,500	$198	64
66 Glenwood Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-14%)	4mo	$275,000	$250	55
10 Grant St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,280 (+0%)	8mo	$212,500	$166	53
102 Innis Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+6%)	7mo	$440,000	$325	53
163 Cannon St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (-7%)	8mo	$200,000	$168	47
31 Ziegler Ave	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,387 (+9%)	6mo	$450,000	$324	47
195 Hooker Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+11%)	4mo	$425,000	$299	45
4 Marian Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,428 (+12%)	6mo	$400,000	$280	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,490
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $21,264
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $513	+0% $444	+5% $375	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $352	+0% $444	+5% $535	+10% $626
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $495	base $444	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Hoffman Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	14d	1	0.08mi
10 Worrall Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	44d	1	0.12mi
16 Boulevard Knls Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	975	$2,300	$2.36	14d	1	0.23mi
761 Main St Unit 3E Arlington, NY	2.0	1.0	1083	$1,700	$1.57	14d	1	0.26mi
18 Innis Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	24d	1	0.27mi
472 Maple St Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	755	$2,300	$3.04	14d	2	0.35mi
37 Roosevelt Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	22d	1	0.36mi
21 Jewett Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	912	$1,700	$1.86	24d	1	0.40mi
8 Fox Ter Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	0.49mi
6 Taconic St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1380	$3,300	$2.39	24d	1	0.52mi
104 Winnikee Ave #3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.61mi
148 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	0.63mi
94 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	14d	1	0.63mi
25 Virginia Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.69mi
197 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	44d	1	0.73mi
319 Mansion St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	14d	1	0.76mi
7 S Clinton St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1140	$2,045	$1.79	24d	1	0.78mi
25 Lent St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,200	$2.18	44d	1	0.81mi
1 S Hamilton St Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	44d	1	0.94mi
49 S Hamilton St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	0.94mi
15 S Hamilton St Poughkeepsie, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$2,205	$2.45	14d	3	0.96mi
50 Crestwood Blvd Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,595	$1.62	14d	1	0.96mi
2 Park Pl Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1380	$1,900	$1.38	24d	1	0.97mi
49 Carroll St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1039	$2,200	$2.12	14d	1	0.98mi
109 Montgomery St Unit 1C Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	44d	1	0.98mi
3502 Fox Ln Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.5	1124	$2,000	$1.78	44d	1	0.99mi
38 Carroll St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	44d	1	1.01mi
2905 Fox Ln Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,600	$2.33	44d	1	1.04mi
9 Bartlett St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,000	$1.85	24d	1	1.07mi
337 Main St Unit 3F Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	24d	1	1.07mi
337 Main St Unit 2F Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	1.07mi
57 Cannon St Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	938	$2,315	$2.47	14d	19	1.08mi
11 Suncrest Ct Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.15mi
131 N Clinton St Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	14d	1	1.16mi
43 High St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	1.18mi
106 South Ave Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	44d	1	1.20mi
6 Eastman Ter Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	14d	1	1.21mi
157 N Clinton St Unit B Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	44d	1	1.23mi
156 N Clinton St Apt 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.23mi
139 N Hamilton St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	4.0	1.0	955	$1,900	$1.99	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2026-01-15
   historical $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$547
• After-tax cash flow: $4,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poughkeepsie City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,159
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6459
• State rank: #559 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poughkeepsie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #2577

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poughkeepsie, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 86,468
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Coming Soon $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,750 · +81.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.