5003 Alberene Rd · Esmont, VA 22959

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1754 0.38 ac lot $120/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, handymen and DIYers this property has been cleaned out of personal property and is ready for someone with a vision to bring it back to life!! This two story farmhouse is situated on an attractive lot in peaceful North Garden, VA - less than half an hour from Charlottesville! Fix it up and sell it for a profit, make a great rental, or live out your dream of the peaceful county life! Will not qualify for a traditional mortgage. Cash, hard money, or renovation loans are some of the options that could be used to purchase this property. Call your favorite Realtor to tour today!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1754
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer: Septic tank; Water: Shared well; Other utilities
• Home design: Detached home; Two levels; 918 square feet above grade
• Construction: Built with stick‑built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot of 0.38 acres; Septic tank; Shared well

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Red Hill Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 201 students, 68% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1754 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1754 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.35%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,241
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -61.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $124,260
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.24×
• Total profit: $315,389
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22959

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $115,000 Active 602-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $11,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,643
• After-tax cash flow: $9,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Esmont

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #21526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,802

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 283.4912
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $110,000 HRAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $115,000 HRAR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,475 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.