3501 Lake Granbury Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily · 501 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 7,841 sqft lot $146/sqft · 6% below area Est $196k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home on a large lot in Granbury. This brand new home has the highest energy efficenecy ratings among competitors and comes with a warranty! The open concept is perfect for hosting family events and the large yard is perfect for kids! The neighborhood has a pool, park, and boat ramp! This one wont last long! Book your showing today! Owner Financing Available!

Key facts

• Open concept
• Large yard
• Neighborhood pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE YARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• NEIGHBORHOOD BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-767/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 501 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $156,906 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 501 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,303
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5702 Arkansas Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-2%)	3mo	$205,000	$165	91
5704 Arkansas Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+1%)	10mo	$225,000	$176	87
5723 Lake Granbury Trl	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+1%)	6mo	$215,000	$168	81
5532 Highview Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+8%)	2mo	$199,999	$146	78
5714 Lake Granbury Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+2%)	23mo	$260,000	$201	74
5433 Tin Top Hwy	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	16mo	$199,500	$166	67
5716 Highland Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,237 (-2%)	17mo	$209,000	$169	66
6109 Tin Top Hwy	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-4%)	1mo	$595,000	$488	65
5626 Highland Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-5%)	17mo	$83,900	$70	58
5816 Archery Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+10%)	10mo	$345,000	$249	54
5427 Water View Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-1%)	22mo	$325,000	$260	54
6220 New Mexico Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	5mo	$99,900	$74	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,955
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-48,893
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $175,748

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $0	+0% $-64	+5% $-128	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-126	+0% $-64	+5% $-2	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-17	base $-64	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	0.33mi
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	45d	1	1.12mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 501 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 498 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 497 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 495 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 493 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 489 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 488 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 487 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 484 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 483 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 482 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 481 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 480 DOM
15. 2025-02-03
    listed $185,000 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home on a large lot in Granbury. This brand new home has the highest energy efficenecy ratings among competitors and comes with a warranty! The open concept is perfect for hosting family events and the large yard is perfect for kids! The neighborhood has a pool, park, and boat ramp! This one wont last long! Book your showing today! Owner Financing Available!

16. 2025-01-07
    historical
17. 2024-07-29
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautiful, brand-new home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Adding a small shed or storage unit — This can provide additional storage and improve the overall functionality of the property, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the appliances — Modern, energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — This can enhance the outdoor living space and increase the property's appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small shed or storage unit — This can provide additional storage and improve the overall functionality of the property, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the appliances — Modern, energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — This can enhance the outdoor living space and increase the property's appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-03 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $185,000 NTREIS