2407 Stephenson St · Durham, NC 27704

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1950 7,405 sqft lot Est $245k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE ADJUSTMENT= BEST DEAL IN DURHAM. Great opportunity in Durham's Colonial Village of East Durham. This charming 1950 bungalow offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 693 square feet full of potential on a spacious 0.17-acre lot. Whether you are looking for your next investment property, renovation project, or a home to personalize and make your own, this property offers endless possibilities. The home features a functional layout with a classic bungalow character ready to be restored or updated to your style. Outside, the flat, fenced backyard provides added privacy along with ample space for outdoor entertaining, gardening, expansion possibilities, or future improvements. Conveniently located n

Key facts

• Potential on lot
• Flat fenced backyard
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FLAT FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• POTENTIAL ON LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Durham County, postal code 27704; Directions: From Roxboro Street take a right on E Club. Stephenson Street is 1/4 mile on left. Home is on the left.
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Combination foundation; Asphalt roof; Built as a house (total living area 693)
• Exterior features: Public maintained road access; Lot about 0.17 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($260/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); George L Carrington Middle (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #335 of 475 statewide, top 72%, 755 students, 73% FRL); Riverside High (math 49% / reading 42%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,812 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,922 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,992
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2408 Stephenson St	0.03mi	2/1.0	725 (+4%)	6mo	$255,000	$352	86
608 E Ellerbee St	0.13mi	2/1.0	692 (-1%)	16mo	$150,000	$217	80
2402 Stephenson St St	0.03mi	2/1.0	738 (+6%)	24mo	$269,900	$366	69
810 Nancy St	0.74mi	2/1.0	795 (+14%)	14mo	$160,000	$201	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,131
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,481
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27704

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,342

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $67	+0% $22	+5% $-24	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-32	+0% $22	+5% $76	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $62	base $22	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 E Club Blvd Unit A Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	675	$1,240	$1.84	15d	1	0.50mi
114 E Club Blvd Unit B Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	675	$1,240	$1.84	25d	1	0.50mi
1605 N Roxboro St Unit 00B Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	492	$1,050	$2.13	25d	1	1.03mi
3523 N Roxboro St Durham, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,299	$1.46	25d	1	1.17mi
3800 Meriwether Dr Durham, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,750	$1.94	15d	23	1.30mi
414 Craven St Unit B Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	610	$1,200	$1.97	25d	1	1.30mi
800 Demerius St Durham, NC	2.0	1.0	715	$1,445	$2.02	25d	1	1.32mi
1001 Ruby St Durham, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$1,300	$2.17	15d	3	1.44mi
308 W Trinity Ave Unit 19 Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	595	$1,100	$1.85	15d	1	1.45mi
4001 Meriwether Dr Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,450	$1.60	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $160,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Durham, NC
• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 40,102
• Household income: $69,668
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1280.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 19% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.91%
• Current HPI: 265.4178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $169,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,852 · +168.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.