Plan 2381 Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$309,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 638 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat
• Den

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• DEN
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $309,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,785.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-713 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1732 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 91d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 87% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 638 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,484 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 638 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,785
• List price: $309,995
• Delta: -11.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5935 Bella Lynne Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,381 (0%)	0mo	$351,182	$147	100
15 Mira Loma Dr	0.31mi	4/4.0	2,426 (+2%)	3mo	$379,900	$157	72
91 Rodeo Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,499 (+5%)	1mo	$315,000	$126	72
62 Carmel Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,356 (-1%)	5mo	$410,000	$174	72
132 Indian Wells Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-1%)	1mo	$389,900	$165	61
3426 Lago Norence Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (-8%)	1mo	$382,955	$174	57
3423 Date Palm Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (-8%)	4mo	$364,425	$165	57
3527 Windmill Palm Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,438 (+2%)	3mo	$449,888	$185	54
3522 Windmill Palm	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,514 (+6%)	3mo	$489,900	$195	52
3411 Windmill Palm Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,514 (+6%)	1mo	$489,888	$195	51
77 Indian Wells Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,677 (+12%)	3mo	$395,000	$148	50
6034 Lake Bridge Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,641 (+11%)	3mo	$525,000	$199	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-102,884
• Equity at exit: $52,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-149,980
• Equity at exit: $30,416

Cash invested: $98,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,490 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1732
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,845
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,277/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,077

Max offer price $248,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-470	-5% $-591	+0% $-713	+5% $-835	+10% $-956
Rent	-10% $-885	-5% $-799	+0% $-713	+5% $-627	+10% $-541
Rate	-1.0pp $-536	-0.5pp $-624	base $-713	+0.5pp $-804	+1.0pp $-897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,946
• Closing costs: $10,554
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Old Presidio Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2446	$2,300	$0.94	184d	1	0.33mi
61 Atascadero Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	2.5	2417	$1,500	$0.62	148d	1	0.34mi
65 Atascadero Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	2414	$1,600	$0.66	112d	1	0.36mi
19 Santa Barbara Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	2.5	1842	$2,150	$1.17	74d	1	0.43mi
36 San Simeon Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	2243	$1,590	$0.71	90d	1	0.45mi
36 San Simeon Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	2243	$1,300	$0.58	65d	1	0.45mi
37 San Simeon Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	2243	$1,100	$0.49	72d	1	0.46mi
121 Rodeo Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	3.0	2015	$2,300	$1.14	10d	1	0.49mi
9 Palm Desert Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,195	$1.22	6d	1	0.76mi
57 Spring Ln Manvel, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,450	$1.31	184d	1	0.95mi
2 Garden Springs Ct Manvel, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,475	$1.10	86d	1	1.05mi
2 Garden Springs Ct Manvel, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,400	$1.07	77d	1	1.05mi
2906 Close Reach Rd Manvel, TX	5.0	4.0	3219	$3,950	$1.23	96d	1	1.10mi
12607 Rio Grande Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	1968	$2,279	$1.16	116d	1	1.35mi
5023 Golden Peach Rd Manvel, TX	4.0	3.5	3146	$3,850	$1.22	106d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $309,995 Active 638 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $309,995 Active 637 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $309,995 Active 636 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $309,995 Active 635 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $309,995 Active 634 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $309,995 Active 632 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $309,995 Active 631 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $309,995 Active 630 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $309,995 Active 629 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $309,995 Active 628 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $309,995 Active 627 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $309,995 Active 626 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,995 Active 625 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,995 Active 624 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $309,995 Active 623 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $309,995 Active 622 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $309,995 Active 621 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $309,995 Active 620 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $309,995 Active 619 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $309,995 Active 618 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $309,995 Active 617 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $309,995 Active 616 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $309,995 Active 615 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $309,995 Active 614 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $309,995 Active 613 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $309,995 Active 612 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $309,995 Active 611 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $309,995 Active 610 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $309,995 Active 609 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $309,995 Active 608 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $309,995 Active 607 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,995 Active 606 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $309,995 Active 605 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $309,995 Active 604 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,995 Active 603 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $309,995 Active 602 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $309,995 Active 601 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $309,995 Active 600 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $309,995 Active 599 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $309,995 Active 598 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $309,995 Active 597 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    pricedays on market $309,995 Active 596 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $307,995 Active 595 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $307,995 Active 594 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $307,995 Active 593 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $307,995 Active 592 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $307,995 Active 591 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $307,995 Active 590 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $307,995 Active 589 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $307,995 Active 588 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,705
• − Property taxes: −$5,277
• − Insurance: −$1,759
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$10,234
• Taxable loss: −$15,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Manvel, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates like landscaping and painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

High Alvin H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $303,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $313,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $323,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $318,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $312,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $307,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $306,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $305,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $304,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $303,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $302,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $301,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $300,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $310,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $320,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $330,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $345,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $350,995 Zillow