1037 E Spruce Dr · Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$262,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1985 6,098 sqft lot Est $197k · 33% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1 Single-Family Residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (about $16.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; 1-space carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Open entry with vaulted ceiling
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Water heater
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camp Mohave Elementary School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 375 students, 66% FRL); Mohave Valley Junior High School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 448 students, 55% FRL); River Valley High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 545 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $262k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8025 S Green Valley Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-6%)	1mo	$132,000	$147	51
8105 S Evergreen Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (+7%)	20mo	$210,000	$205	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $133,156
• Equity at exit: $236,030

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $399,286
• Equity at exit: $509,008

Cash invested: $73,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86440

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $235,885

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-74	+0% $-148	+5% $-222	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-219	+0% $-148	+5% $-77	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-81	base $-148	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,500
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7866 S Meadowlark St Mohave Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	15d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   status Active
3. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $262,000 Active
5. 2001-12-14
   soldstatus $82,000
6. 1993-08-20
   soldstatus $69,000
7. 1990-03-16
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,729 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$893/yr (+$74/mo · 106.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$6,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colorado River Union High School District (4381)
• NCES district ID: 0400082
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,132
• Composite: 12.72/100
• National rank: #9603
• State rank: #213 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willow Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #18589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 322.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+322.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2026-04-29 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-04-28 Listed $262,000 WARDEX
• 2001-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $836 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.