631 E Ellendale Ave #206 · Dallas, OR 97338

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1970 Excellent condition $119/sqft · 41% above area Est $113k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand new, move-in ready home in the Heather Lane community offers an exceptional homeownership opportunity. Thoughtfully designed, this open-concept floor plan is bright and airy with ample windows and tall 8’ ceilings. The elegant kitchen features Samsung® stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinet storage, and a large island, perfect for both cooking and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes an oversized closet, while the spacious en-suite bath boasts double sinks and a fiberglass shower wit

Key facts

• Oversized closet
• Double sinks
• Elegant kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ELEGANT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• OVERSIZED CLOSET
• SPACIOUS EN-SUITE BATH
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.4% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#61 in OR, #2,132 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Dallas SD 2 (town): math 32% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #102 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 177 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,130
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 40.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
631 E Ellendale Ave #206	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,339 (0%)	0mo	$154,000	$115	100
300 SE LaCreole Dr #263	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	1mo	$145,900	$113	79
450 LaCreole Dr #25	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	1mo	$161,500	$125	78
300 LaCreole Dr #220	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+5%)	2mo	$150,000	$107	75
300 SE Lacreole Dr #253	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+5%)	2mo	$55,000	$39	71
450 LaCreole Dr #31	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+0%)	8mo	$106,000	$79	69
450 SE Lacreole Dr #128	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$65,000	$52	68
300 SE LaCreole Dr #210	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-11%)	3mo	$100,000	$84	64
450 SE Lacreole Dr #49	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-7%)	8mo	$122,000	$98	63
300 SE Lacreole Dr #273	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+13%)	9mo	$179,500	$119	56
1030 E Ellendale Ave #3	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,176 (-12%)	9mo	$60,000	$51	54
300 SE Lacreole Dr #211	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-11%)	7mo	$79,500	$67	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,428
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $17,217
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97338

• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $342	+0% $287	+5% $233	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $218	+0% $287	+5% $357	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $328	base $287	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
481 E Ellendale Ave Dallas, OR	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,425	$1.36	2d	2	0.16mi
418 SE Lacreole Dr Apt 4 Dallas, OR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.27mi
352 NE Evergreen Ct Dallas, OR	2.0	1.0	1041	$1,700	$1.63	14d	1	0.45mi
1060 SE Miller Ave Dallas, OR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	14d	1	0.83mi
1267 SE Holman Ave Unit 2 Dallas, OR	3.0	1.5	1045	$1,850	$1.77	24d	1	0.93mi
1289 SE Holman Ave Dallas, OR	3.0	1.0	926	$1,495	$1.61	44d	1	0.95mi
237 SE Clay St Apt 4 Dallas, OR	2.0	1.0	970	$1,550	$1.60	14d	1	1.03mi
860 SE Fir Villa Rd Dallas, OR	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	21d	1	1.23mi
1324 SW Levens St Dallas, OR	3.0	1.0	1012	$2,100	$2.08	24d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   listed $159,000 Active 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

   This brand new, move-in ready home in the Heather Lane community offers an exceptional homeownership opportunity. Thoughtfully designed, this open-concept floor plan is bright and airy with ample windows and tall 8’ ceilings. The elegant kitchen features Samsung® stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinet storage, and a large island, perfect for both cooking and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes an oversized closet, while the spacious en-suite bath boasts double sinks and a fiberglass shower with glass doors. Throughout the home, hardwood cabinets, LED can lighting, and Pfister® faucets elevate the design. Enjoy year-round comfort with an Ecobee® Smart Thermostat and furnace, which is pre-wired and ready for a heat pump. The Heather Lane community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with park amenities such as club-house, park management and road maintenance. This community is a welcoming environment for those who are 55+, and pets are allowed with park approval.Park Residence Application Link: https://firstcommercialpropertycorp.quickleasepro.com/d/apply/172106

2. 2026-04-03
   listed $159,000 Active 1106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

   This brand new, move-in ready home in the Heather Lane community offers an exceptional homeownership opportunity. Thoughtfully designed, this open-concept floor plan is bright and airy with ample windows and tall 8’ ceilings. The elegant kitchen features Samsung® stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinet storage, and a large island, perfect for both cooking and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes an oversized closet, while the spacious en-suite bath boasts double sinks and a fiberglass shower with glass doors. Throughout the home, hardwood cabinets, LED can lighting, and Pfister® faucets elevate the design. Enjoy year-round comfort with an Ecobee® Smart Thermostat and furnace, which is pre-wired and ready for a heat pump. The Heather Lane community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with park amenities such as club-house, park management and road maintenance. This community is a welcoming environment for those who are 55+, and pets are allowed with park approval.Park Residence Application Link: https://firstcommercialpropertycorp.quickleasepro.com/d/apply/172106

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$234
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in the Heather Lane community offers an exceptional homeownership opportunity with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood in living areas — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern feature

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood in living areas — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern feature ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas SD 2
• NCES district ID: 4103860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,684
• Composite: 37.24/100
• National rank: #8983
• State rank: #102 of 183 in OR

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #2132

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, OR
• County: Polk County · 84,240 people
• City population: 23,419
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 23,419
• Household income: $78,858
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,594 people
• By 2030: 93,209 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 101,942 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 110,395 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 131,091 · +48.0%
• By 2100: 141,746 · +60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 50.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+7.0 2012: R+4.8 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.14%
• Current HPI: 311.4157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $159,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $159,000 WVMLS