4858 Brookdale Dr #170 · Sacramento, CA 95834

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 108 Days on market

Built 1997 $93/sqft · 19% above area Est $75k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME IN STADIUM CLUB ESTATES SR. COMMUNITY FOR 55+. THIS HOME IS A 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH WITH LAMINATE FLOORING (CARPET IN THE BEDROOMS. ) KITCHEN IS AN OPEN FLOORPLAN INCLUDING - UPGRADED CABINETS W/ SOFT CLOSE & COUNTERTOPS, GAS STOVE, UPGRADED HOOD VENT, UPGRADED CABINETS WITH LOTS OF COUNTERSPACE. GREAT ROOM WITH BAY WINDOW INCLUDING SUN SCREENS. DUAL PANE WINDOWS, 2-CAR CARPORT WITH AWNING AND OUTDOOR SHED FOR THE EXTRA STORAGE SPACE. CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL, SPA, GAME ROOM, EXERCISE ROOM, BBQ PITS, SHUFFLE BOARD, LAUNDRY FACILITY & MORE. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND TRANSPORTATION WITH EASY FREEWAY ACCESS.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Bay window
• Gas stove

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• GAS STOVE
• GREAT ROOM
• BAY WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 146 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.97%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,518
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 19.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4860 Brookdale Dr #169	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	880 (-8%)	13mo	$64,900	$74	70
4206 Brookside Dr #28	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	3mo	$87,000	$81	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $76,227
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $167,743
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $257/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $1,515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $823

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,565	-5% $1,540	+0% $1,515	+5% $1,489	+10% $1,464
Rent	-10% $1,298	-5% $1,406	+0% $1,515	+5% $1,623	+10% $1,731
Rate	-1.0pp $1,559	-0.5pp $1,537	base $1,515	+0.5pp $1,492	+1.0pp $1,468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$2,725	$2.86	0d	1	0.15mi
4450 El Centro Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,348	$2.61	0d	11	0.65mi
4200 E Commerce Way #1012 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$1,795	$1.87	45d	1	0.78mi
4200 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,695	$2.09	5d	2	0.82mi
4190 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$3,300	$3.51	0d	20	0.84mi
3610 Duckhorn Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$3,140	$3.39	3d	29	0.87mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	3d	3	0.96mi
3791 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,970	$3.43	3d	21	0.97mi
3761 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$3,231	$3.74	3d	29	1.01mi
2201 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,777	$2.74	3d	14	1.18mi
4101 Innovator Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,695	$2.84	3d	10	1.30mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.30mi
2490 Quiet Trail Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$3,599	$3.23	3d	14	1.33mi
4100 Innovator Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,990	$3.47	3d	18	1.39mi
3741 Tice Creek Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1027	$2,295	$2.23	8d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $257 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 163.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A99 · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$257
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $17,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,283
• After-tax cash flow: $13,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,245
• Household income: $101,260
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 19% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.12%
• Current HPI: 295.8305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $257 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.