2929 State Route 52 · Pine Bush, NY 12566

$290,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,645 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1947 3.00 ac lot $110/sqft · 62% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large Sprawling Cape Styled Farm House Situated On 3 Acres In Pine Bush! Walk into the octagon foyer & admire all the features this classic home has to offer. Main living area boasts hardwood flooring throughout, massive living room with fireplace & built in shelves, dining room, office with bow window, primary bedroom & primary bath. If you enjoy cooking the kitchen has plenty of cabinet & counter space. Also as a bonus a window overlooking a peaceful pond. 2nd floor has 2 rooms with a Jack & Jill bathroom & plenty of attic storage. Plenty of parking, storage or workshop area in your attached & detached garage.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Plenty of cabinet
• Built in shelves

Tags

• OCTAGON FOYER
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN SHELVES
• BOW WINDOW
• PLENTY OF CABINET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage options; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewage; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances included
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedroom count inferred in room total)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ducted heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Entrance foyer; Full unfinished basement; Dormer attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement space for utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-976 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Bush Elementary School (math 12% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,771 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 649 students, 53% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,450 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.42%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $768,081
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -62.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $58,430
• Equity at exit: $221,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $216,405
• Equity at exit: $439,801

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$855 /mo · $10,255/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-976

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,160

Max offer price $205,101

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-812	-5% $-894	+0% $-976	+5% $-1,058	+10% $-1,140
Rent	-10% $-1,128	-5% $-1,052	+0% $-976	+5% $-900	+10% $-824
Rate	-1.0pp $-830	-0.5pp $-902	base $-976	+0.5pp $-1,051	+1.0pp $-1,127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $290,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $300,000 Active 646-char remark
17. 2026-02-03
    historical
18. 2025-02-19
    status Active
19. 2025-02-03
    historical
20. 2024-12-12
    status Active
21. 2024-05-21
    status Pending
22. 2024-01-19
    status Active
23. 2023-09-02
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-11
    status Pending
25. 2022-08-11
    historical
26. 2022-07-06
    status Active
27. 2022-06-26
    historical
28. 2021-10-29
    price $299,900
29. 2021-09-26
    listed $320,000 Active
30. 2001-10-30
    soldstatus $226,000
31. 1979-09-06
    soldstatus $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,255 · $855/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,255 · $855/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$10,255
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$16,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pine Bush

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #8470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+395.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-29 Price Changed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-26 Listed $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 1979-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,255 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.