78 Northampton Rd · Amsterdam, NY 12010

$148,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1951 0.34 ac lot Est $252k · 41% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

What a convenient location Just a hop skip and a jump to the primary school and middle school, close to shopping, hospitals and centrally located for easy travel. Home has a nice deep yard for the kids, extra office space for a home office that has its own entrance, office can be doubled in size by absorbing the second garage area.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-498/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#247 in NY, #3,884 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Amsterdam City School District (town): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #546 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Raphael J Mcnulty Academy For Intern Studies & Literacy (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 447 students, 0% FRL); Amsterdam High School (math 75% / reading 82%, grade A-, #563 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,179 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amsterdam City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,105 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Coolidge Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,663 (-5%)	4mo	$300,000	$180	80
47 Mcclellan Ave	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,813 (+3%)	1mo	$235,000	$130	77
7 Grant Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,680 (-4%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	73
5 Lindbergh Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,983 (+13%)	6mo	$286,000	$144	62
44 Fairmont Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,610 (-8%)	2mo	$280,000	$174	61
45 Coolidge Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	6mo	$289,000	$188	54
10 Thomas St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (+1%)	8mo	$110,000	$62	54
35 Mcclellan Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,500 (-14%)	8mo	$180,000	$120	53
16 Jackson St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,982 (+13%)	2mo	$91,000	$46	49
245 Brookside Ave	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,610 (-8%)	5mo	$245,000	$152	43
112 Country Ridge Ct	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,504 (-14%)	5mo	$179,900	$120	40
103 Zanella Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,526 (-13%)	6mo	$270,000	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $78,540
• Equity at exit: $134,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $233,544
• Equity at exit: $289,280

Cash invested: $41,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12010

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $141,564

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,225
• Closing costs: $4,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Market St Amsterdam, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	44d	1	0.43mi
214 Market St Amsterdam, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,300	$0.87	23d	1	0.43mi
49 Elizabeth St Amsterdam, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	21d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2023-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2023-02-21
   soldstatus $140,000
3. 2022-12-06
   status Pending
4. 2022-11-03
   listed $148,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,341
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,332
• Taxable loss: −$2,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amsterdam City School District
• NCES district ID: 3602970
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,735
• Composite: 32.03/100
• National rank: #5824
• State rank: #546 of 590 in NY

Livability — Amsterdam

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #3884

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amsterdam, NY
• City population: 27,339
• Population (ZIP): 27,339

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.12%
• Current HPI: 312.4966
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $148,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.