5866 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21206

$99,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 940 sqft · Townhouse public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1930 $106/sqft · 43% below area Est $177k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

Key facts

• Strong exposure
• Major routes
• Convenient access

Tags

• BELAIR ROAD LOCATION
• STRONG EXPOSURE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• MAJOR ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor reports 940 finished above-grade square feet and 470 below-grade square feet (470 unfinished below grade)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Oil-fired heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $100k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.99%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,528
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -43.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5876 Belair Rd	0.01mi	2/1.5	1,044 (+11%)	9mo	$149,000	$143	73
3717 Bayonne Ave	0.42mi	2/1.5	960 (+2%)	14mo	$200,000	$208	65
3706 Springwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	0mo	$155,000	$151	63
5903 Lillyan Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	7mo	$200,000	$195	61
3707 Raspe Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	13mo	$250,000	$244	49
5709 Walther Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	11mo	$218,000	$213	48
4540 Hazelwood Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+15%)	10mo	$180,000	$167	42
5602 White Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+7%)	15mo	$225,000	$223	42
4713 Glenarm Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	813 (-14%)	18mo	$160,000	$197	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $11,254
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $51,630
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,404/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $424	+0% $396	+5% $368	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $338	+0% $396	+5% $454	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $422	base $396	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5906 Benton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	44d	1	0.14mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	0.29mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.54mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.57mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.57mi
5738 Cedonia Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	797	$1,385	$1.74	3d	3	0.64mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	24d	1	0.67mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.67mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.67mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	44d	1	0.67mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,450	$1.68	3d	5	0.71mi
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.72mi
6410 Walther Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,995	$1.67	44d	7	0.81mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	0.83mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	44d	1	0.88mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	937	$1,550	$1.65	5d	1	0.89mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	797	$1,165	$1.46	44d	1	0.89mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	969	$1,490	$1.54	5d	1	0.89mi
3010 White Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	630	$1,150	$1.83	24d	1	1.07mi
3014 Hamilton Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,575	$1.85	24d	1	1.07mi
3033 Hamilton Ave Unit 1R Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	5d	1	1.07mi
4801 Edgar Ter Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	15d	1	1.09mi
4801 Edgar Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	1.09mi
3021 Echodale Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	44d	1	1.12mi
6042 Barstow Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	736	$1,146	$1.56	3d	1	1.25mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,120	$1.51	3d	1	1.40mi
3010 Woodring Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	44d	1	1.41mi
2604 Hamilton Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	44d	1	1.42mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	44d	3	1.44mi
35-C Mopec Cir Nottingham, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,445	$1.31	3d	10	1.49mi
5600 Birchwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	44d	1	1.49mi
6915 Harford Rd Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	44d	1	1.50mi
6915 Harford Rd Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	658	$1,150	$1.75	3d	1	1.50mi
6915 Harford Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	658	$1,250	$1.90	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $99,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $110,000 544-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    price $115,000 544-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $129,900 Active 544-char remark
18. 2011-11-03
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

19. 2011-11-03
    soldstatus $39,000

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

20. 2011-10-18
    status Contract 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

21. 2011-10-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

22. 2011-09-28
    listed $39,600 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

23. 2011-09-28
    listed $39,600

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. BUY FOR AS LITTLE AS 3% DOWN WITH FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH MORTAGE FINANCING. ELIGIBILITY APPLIES. GREAT HOME, GOOD SIZE ROOMS, FENCED REAR YARD.

24. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $124,000
25. 2006-12-14
    soldstatus $124,000
26. 2006-11-16
    historical
27. 2006-11-07
    listed $119,900
28. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $18,500
29. 2000-12-04
    historical
30. 2000-07-26
    listed $25,200
31. 1997-11-26
    soldstatus $50,000
32. 1997-10-31
    soldstatus $50,000
33. 1997-09-18
    historical
34. 1997-07-02
    listed $58,500
35. 1997-06-11
    historical
36. 1997-03-13
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,404 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,404 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,404
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $3,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+70.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-11-03 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MRIS
• 2011-11-03 Sold (MLS) $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-18 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-10-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $39,600 MRIS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $39,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-14 Sold (MLS) $124,000 MRIS
• 2006-11-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-11-07 Listed $119,900 MRIS
• 2001-03-29 Sold (MLS) $18,500 MRIS
• 2000-12-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-07-26 Listed $25,200 MRIS
• 1997-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-31 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRIS
• 1997-09-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-07-02 Listed $58,500 MRIS
• 1997-06-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-03-13 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,404 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.