12949 Shannon Hills Dr · Houston, TX 77099

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Townhouse public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1980 2,068 sqft lot $77/sqft · 10% below area Est $167k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Beckford Place North. Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with approximately 1,940 sq ft and a 2-car garage. Vaulted living area with open staircase and private backyard patio. Property offers strong potential for updates and added value. Exterior siding is HardiePlank. Conveniently located near Westpark Tollway, Highway 6, shopping, and dining. Property is being sold as-is. Seller is aware updates are needed and has priced the home accordingly.

Key facts

• Vaulted living area
• Hardieplank siding
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• VAULTED LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• HARDIEPLANK SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,198
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -10.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8115 Barnes Ridge Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,812 (-6%)	1mo	$219,000	$121	57
8118 Barnes Ridge Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,818 (-6%)	9mo	$230,000	$127	51
8002 Montague Manor Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,812 (-6%)	8mo	$225,000	$124	47
13030 Brutus Hill Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,751 (-10%)	8mo	$222,000	$127	46
8532 Dairy View Ln	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,672 (-14%)	6mo	$128,000	$77	42
12553 Wellington Park Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,082 (+8%)	24mo	$102,500	$49	40
13115 Cressida Glen Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,749 (-10%)	13mo	$230,000	$132	37
8039 Singing Sonnet Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,738 (-10%)	16mo	$220,000	$127	36
8050 Montague Manor Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,751 (-10%)	20mo	$245,000	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.64% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,236
• Equity at exit: $64,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,696
• Equity at exit: $96,916

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77099

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,658/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $67	+0% $24	+5% $-18	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-39	+0% $24	+5% $87	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $63	base $24	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13027 Bacard Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$1,750	$1.00	44d	1	0.13mi
12717 Yoshino Cherry St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,950	$1.18	25d	1	0.46mi
9506 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1223	$1,260	$1.03	2d	13	0.52mi
9420 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,370	$1.12	44d	1	0.57mi
10343 Huntington Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$1,649	$1.12	23d	1	0.95mi
12506 Panther Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,825	$1.05	44d	1	1.16mi
7520 Cook Rd Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,306	$1.01	0d	1	1.21mi
7520 Cook Rd Unit 7553 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,346	$1.04	11d	1	1.21mi
7119 Brendam Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1231	$1,400	$1.14	0d	1	1.22mi
7119 Brendam Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1231	$1,400	$1.14	4d	1	1.22mi
13100 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,152	$2.11	2d	28	1.23mi
13916 Bonnercrest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,610	$1.06	6d	1	1.25mi
7526 Cook Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,287	$1.00	44d	1	1.28mi
9734 Clifton Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,774	$0.99	6d	4	1.31mi
13009 Greenway Chase Ct #3009 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1422	$1,350	$0.95	44d	1	1.31mi
13009 Greenway Chase Ct Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1422	$1,350	$0.95	44d	1	1.31mi
13004 Greenway Chase Ct Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,500	$1.13	44d	1	1.35mi
9323 Westacre Pl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1659	$1,470	$0.89	44d	1	1.41mi
6975 Westbranch Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,425	$1.11	44d	1	1.42mi
13034 Leader St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,400	$1.13	25d	1	1.44mi
6843 Greenway Chase St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1422	$2,200	$1.55	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $149,900 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Great opportunity in Beckford Place North. Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with approximately 1,940 sq ft and a 2-car garage. Vaulted living area with open staircase and private backyard patio. Property offers strong potential for updates and added value. Exterior siding is HardiePlank. Conveniently located near Westpark Tollway, Highway 6, shopping, and dining. Property is being sold as-is. Seller is aware updates are needed and has priced the home accordingly.

16. 1994-11-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,658 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,658 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$4,658
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,064
• Household income: $49,396
• Rent vs Own: 62.6% rent · 37.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3423.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 31% Asian 14% Two or more races 14% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.64%
• Current HPI: 334.6278
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 1994-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,658 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.