Montrose Plan · Bonaire, GA 31005

$324,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · SingleFamily · 366 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Harley Farms South, a beautifully crafted community offering 4- and 5-bedroom new homes in Bonaire, GA, with thoughtful designs and high-end features. These homes offer open-concept living, designer kitchens, covered patios, and spacious layouts with primary suites on the main level or upstairs options with lofts and flex space. Perfectly positioned near Robins Air Force Base and I-75, Harley Farms South puts you just minutes from everyday conveniences-shopping, dining, and major employers-while offering a quiet, well-designed neighborhood to call home. On select homes, get up to $25,000 in Flex Cash plus an included refrigerator. Ask about no payments until September 2026. Preferred Lender promotion ends 05/29/2026.

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Designer kitchens
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• DESIGNER KITCHENS
• COVERED PATIOS
• PRIMARY SUITES
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

🏗️ New construction. The $324,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,650.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.3% in Bonaire — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonaire Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 529 students, 33% FRL); Bonaire Middle School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #21 of 470 statewide, top 4%, 1,140 students, 32% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,852 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,650
• List price: $324,990
• Delta: -9.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Harley Farms Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,587 (+2%)	0mo	$375,000	$145	90
811 Brittany Nichole Ct Lot 134	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,551 (+0%)	1mo	$356,865	$140	87
811 Brittany Nichole Ct	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,551 (+0%)	1mo	$356,865	$140	87
911 Nora Eloise Dr	0.20mi	5/3.5	2,608 (+3%)	1mo	$373,325	$143	84
515 Foster Sydney Ct	0.20mi	5/3.0	2,676 (+5%)	1mo	$374,050	$140	81
515 Foster Sydney Ct Lot 51	0.20mi	5/3.0	2,676 (+5%)	1mo	$374,050	$140	81
513 Foster Sydney Ct Lot 52	0.20mi	5/3.5	2,902 (+14%)	2mo	$382,228	$132	64
241 Meadows Ln	0.49mi	5/3.0	2,787 (+10%)	0mo	$424,900	$152	61
241 Meadows Ln #199	0.49mi	5/3.0	2,787 (+10%)	0mo	$424,900	$152	61
419 Cannon Point Dr	0.63mi	5/2.5	2,653 (+4%)	1mo	$299,990	$113	60
122 Maisie Way #205	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,864 (+13%)	0mo	$424,900	$148	48
122 Maisie Way	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,864 (+13%)	0mo	$424,900	$148	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-74,468
• Equity at exit: $53,625

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-72,968
• Equity at exit: $31,096

Cash invested: $100,702 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,900 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 192 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31005

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,395/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,146

Max offer price $313,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-198	+0% $-322	+5% $-446	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-430	+0% $-322	+5% $-214	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-231	base $-322	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,912
• Closing costs: $10,789
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Harley Farms Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2440	$2,550	$1.05	70d	1	0.38mi
805 Harley Farms Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2440	$2,550	$1.05	93d	1	0.38mi
234 Oakley Ct Bonaire, GA	5.0	4.0	3335	$3,000	$0.90	93d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $324,990 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $324,990 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $324,990 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $324,990 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $324,990 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $324,990 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $324,990 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $324,990 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $324,990 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $324,990 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 348 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 345 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 343 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 342 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 341 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 340 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $324,990 Active 339 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 338 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 337 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 336 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 335 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 334 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 333 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 332 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 331 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 330 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 329 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $324,990 Active 328 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 327 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 326 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 325 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 324 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 323 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $324,990 Active 321 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 319 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 318 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $324,990 Active 316 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 315 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 314 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 313 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 312 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 310 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 309 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 307 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 306 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 305 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,146
• − Property taxes: −$5,395
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,629
• − Management: −$2,629
• − Depreciation: −$10,463
• Taxable loss: −$10,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bonaire Primary School Middle Bonaire Middle School A- GA #21/470 Nat'l #1,003/14,009 High Veterans High School F GA #104/424 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bonaire

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 169,502 people
• City population: 22,063
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,063
• Household income: $110,461
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.85%
• Current HPI: 213.0605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-07 Listed $324,990 Zillow