18540 Soledad Canyon Rd #27 · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$137,499

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $143k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home located in the desirable Granada Villa Mobile Home Park Estates in Canyon Country.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Granada Villa Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $1,685; Manager approval required for residency
• HOA & community: Land lease in place

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (model 8522L); Double body type; 1 story; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 10 ft by 40 ft
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Dog park and neighborhood park

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry; Single-level home
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $950 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.88%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18323 Soledad Canyon Rd #36	0.38mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	13mo	$150,000	$188	71
18540 Soledad Canyon Rd Spc 17	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	11mo	$84,990	$118	62
18145 Soledad Canyon Rd #12	0.54mi	2/1.0	850 (+6%)	6mo	$180,000	$212	55
18035 Soledad Canyon Rd #8	0.63mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	24mo	$180,000	$225	51
18145 SOLEDAD CANYON Rd #54	0.56mi	2/2.0	881 (+10%)	11mo	$100,000	$114	47
18035 Soledad Canyon Rd #45	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	878 (+10%)	4mo	$134,500	$153	42
18204 Soledad Canyon Rd #53	0.47mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	22mo	$128,900	$179	40
18035 Soledad Canyon Rd #49	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	12mo	$113,000	$157	39
18035 Soledad Canyon Rd #81	0.63mi	2/2.0	900 (+12%)	13mo	$203,900	$227	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $59,731
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $147,968
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $1,344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,018

Max offer price $137,499

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27520 Sierra Hwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$2,502	$2.59	1d	1	0.15mi
18804 Mandan St #807 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	860	$2,600	$3.02	1d	1	0.32mi
27240 Luther Dr #509 Canyon Country, CA	1.0	1.0	652	$1,995	$3.06	1d	1	0.36mi
Jakes Way Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,640	$3.18	1d	20	0.41mi
18005 Annes Cir Canyon Country, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	979	$2,954	$3.02	1d	10	0.45mi
18209 Sierra Hwy #17 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	795	$2,500	$3.14	10d	1	0.48mi
18209 Sierra Hwy #40 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	795	$2,350	$2.96	1d	1	0.48mi
27940 Solamint Rd Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$3,974	$4.62	1d	5	0.49mi
27070 Hidaway Ave #4 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.5	1078	$3,200	$2.97	2d	1	0.57mi
18008 Saratoga Way #513 Canyon Country, CA	1.0	1.0	934	$1,050	$1.12	1d	1	0.59mi
27303 Sara St Canyon Country, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,402	$2.86	1d	6	0.60mi
18028 Saratoga Way #557 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	843	$2,900	$3.44	1d	1	0.60mi
18211 Flynn Dr #144 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1085	$2,700	$2.49	1d	1	0.63mi
27105 Silver Oak Ln Canyon Country, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$3,070	$3.01	1d	25	0.64mi
18046 Beneda Ln Unit B203 Santa Clarita, CA	1.0	1.0	756	$1,900	$2.51	10d	1	0.65mi
27944 Tyler Ln #448 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	848	$2,295	$2.71	1d	1	0.65mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	1d	1	0.68mi
28015 Sarabande Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	885	$2,850	$3.22	1d	1	0.72mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	2d	1	0.74mi
17621 Pauline Ct Canyon Country, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1200	$2,539	$2.12	1d	8	0.86mi
17947 Lost Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,795	$2.73	17d	1	0.89mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	17d	2	0.89mi
17740 Scherzinger Ln Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	825	$2,150	$2.61	1d	2	1.07mi
17350 Humphreys Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$3,248	$3.22	1d	65	1.09mi
26752 Winsome Cir Newhall, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,950	$2.63	1d	1	1.11mi
28085 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$2,100	$2.94	1d	7	1.26mi
17581 Scherzinger Ln Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,380	$2.98	3d	1	1.37mi
19300 Maybrook LN Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$3,222	$3.17	1d	61	1.46mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,499 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,499 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,499 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,499 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,499 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,499 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,499 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,499 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $137,499 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $137,499 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,499 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,499 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,499 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,499 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $137,499
16. 2026-04-21
    price $139,999
17. 2026-04-02
    price $170,000
18. 2026-03-02
    price $164,990
19. 2026-02-18
    price $169,990
20. 2026-01-25
    listed $170,000 Active
21. 2015-03-23
    historical
22. 2015-03-13
    price $26,992
23. 2015-02-17
    price $29,992
24. 2014-10-07
    price $25,000
25. 2014-10-07
    price $32,000
26. 2014-09-22
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 234.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 33% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$687
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $14,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,529
• After-tax cash flow: $12,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+292.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $137,499 CRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $139,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $164,990 CRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $169,990 CRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2015-03-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-03-13 Price Changed $26,992 CRMLS
• 2015-02-17 Price Changed $29,992 CRMLS
• 2014-10-07 Price Changed $32,000 CRMLS
• 2014-10-07 Price Changed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2014-09-22 Listed $35,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.