8204 Vanilla Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$257,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 4,852 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious home at Wayside Village is move-in ready and includes an upgraded kitchen with stunning wood cabinetry, granite countertops, recessed LED lighting, luxury vinyl plank flooring and a full suite of appliances by Whirlpool, including a refrigerator and built-in microwave. The family room will comfortably fit your sectional sofa, coffee tables and big-screen TV, while the oversized back patio extends the entertainment space outdoors. The master suite showcases a generously sized bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Wood cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FULL SUITE OF APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Community Management; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Builder: LGI Homes
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 14x12; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 5x8; Bathroom (First floor) — 5x8
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (First floor) — 6x6; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $257,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,556.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,327 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8203 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	1mo	$249,900	$232	95
8116 Sunberry Shadow Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	14mo	$258,900	$241	86
8112 Sunberry Shadow Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	12mo	$251,900	$234	85
8033 Alpine Bearberry Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	8mo	$250,900	$233	82
10410 Sunny Petal Circle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	14mo	$248,900	$231	81
10404 Sunny Petal Circle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	14mo	$253,900	$236	81
8044 Parker Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	13mo	$175,000	$154	63
8054 Parker Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	14mo	$180,000	$158	62
10713 Red Orchid	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-6%)	12mo	$221,070	$218	54
10707 Red Orchid	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-6%)	14mo	$199,000	$197	54
7738 Parker Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,174 (+9%)	12mo	$160,000	$136	38
8328 Caddo Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	934 (-13%)	12mo	$85,000	$91	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $86,400
• Equity at exit: $199,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $259,584
• Equity at exit: $407,867

Cash invested: $69,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,728/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $198,644

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-259	+0% $-345	+5% $-431	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-415	+0% $-345	+5% $-274	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-282	base $-345	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,139
• Closing costs: $7,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.34mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.36mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	0.59mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.59mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.66mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.67mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	25d	1	0.69mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.69mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	0.69mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.94mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.97mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	25d	2	1.03mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	6d	1	1.03mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	2d	5	1.09mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	45d	1	1.10mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	45d	1	1.10mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	0d	9	1.17mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	1.22mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	1.28mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.37mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	25d	1	1.43mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.43mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $257,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,728
• − Insurance: −$1,243
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,231
• Taxable loss: −$8,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $257,900 HARMLS