1227 W Hwy 22 · Woodland Mills, TN 38261

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1957 0.73 ac lot $51/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Let your DIY skills and imagination get started. Come see this 2BR, 1BA home set on . 73 acre. Located between UC and Reelfoot Lake.

Key facts

• 0.73 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#327 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.55%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,042
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -52.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $23,107
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $59,216
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38261

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $343

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $44,900 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Let your DIY skills and imagination get started. Come see this 2BR, 1BA home set on . 73 acre. Located between UC and Reelfoot Lake.

18. 2026-01-12
    listed $49,500 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Let your DIY skills and imagination get started. Come see this 2BR, 1BA home set on . 73 acre. Located between UC and Reelfoot Lake.

19. 2024-03-18
    price $54,900
20. 2008-05-09
    soldstatus $36,000
21. 2004-02-23
    soldstatus $38,100
22. 1997-06-06
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 60.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $5,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $4,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Woodland Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #21762

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,338

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.55%
• Current HPI: 191.8825
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+149.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $44,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-12 Listed $49,500 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $54,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2008-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $38,100 Public Records
• 1997-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.