238 Mingo Ln · Chubbuck, ID 83202

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1976 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 66 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured on land (Residential)
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-494/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#4 in ID, #454 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Pocatello District (urban): math 45% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #26 of 92 in ID (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chubbuck Elementary School (math 61% / reading 64%, grade B, #53 of 357 statewide, top 15%, 495 students, 34% FRL); Hawthorne Middle School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #52 of 109 statewide, top 51%, 674 students, 48% FRL); Century High School (math 41% / reading 71%, grade C, #24 of 169 statewide, top 14%, 1,092 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 325 units permitted in Bannock County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $126,009 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-26,730
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,841
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83202

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $144,047

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $11	+0% $-41	+5% $-93	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-91	+0% $-41	+5% $9	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-3	base $-41	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocatello District
• NCES district ID: 1602640
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,478
• Composite: 43.46/100
• National rank: #3003
• State rank: #26 of 92 in ID

Livability — Chubbuck

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #454

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chubbuck, ID
• County: Bannock County · 82,995 people
• City population: 24,513
• Metro: Pocatello, ID
• Population (ZIP): 24,513
• Household income: $70,423
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Bannock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,173 people
• By 2030: 86,575 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 86,235 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 86,090 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 85,032 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 85,103 · -1.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bannock

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 35.8% · R 60.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+20.5 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.31%
• Current HPI: 229.4622
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.14%
• Metro: Pocatello, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $175,000 PCTMLS