11255 Wild Goose Dr · Houston, TX 77375

$289,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2006 10,450 sqft lot Est $441k · 34% under $37/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic Updated 4-2.5-2-GameRm or Media/Bonus Rm. Master BR Down on approx 1/4 Acre huge Cul-de-sac. No carpet downstairs. Extensive Premium Wide Plank, Distressed Floors-April 2017.Huge 24'x12'Patio-November 2016.Kitchenaid Dishwasher-2016.Gourmet Eat-In Kitchen-Beautiful Cherry-like 42'' cabinets, Stainless Appliances. Kitchenaid Frig stays. Beautiful Family Room with Stone Surround Fireplace. Master Suite/Soaking Tub, Custom Closet! GameRm or Bonus/Media Rm & 3 Bedrooms Up. NO FLOODING IN HARVEY

Key facts

• Breakfast room
• Kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• FAMILY ROOM
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• POWDER BATH
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Associa Principal Mgmt Group; Annual association fee of $440; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Workshop; Located in a subdivision; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Pantry (listed under interior features)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 14); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (11 x 11; 10 x 11; 12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Double vanity; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Window treatments; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kohrville El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 736 students, 64% FRL); Ulrich Int (math 39% / reading 47%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 1,262 students, 58% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 37% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,647 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $440,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11251 Wild Goose Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,540 (-6%)	5mo	$284,806	$112	86
11426 Baldwin Spruce Trl	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,483 (-8%)	2mo	$290,000	$117	75
11438 Baldwin Spruce Trl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,394 (-11%)	6mo	$319,900	$134	68
10138 Cairn Meadows Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,638 (-2%)	7mo	$448,000	$170	64
1231 Heath Hollow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,588 (-4%)	7mo	$475,000	$184	59
10130 Eden Valley Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,522 (-6%)	9mo	$499,000	$198	52
19222 Wading River Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,498 (-7%)	7mo	$275,000	$110	52
1223 Arden Forest Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,497 (-7%)	6mo	$475,000	$190	50
18726 Dovewood Springs Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,876 (+7%)	8mo	$325,000	$113	48
11910 N Brenton Knoll Ct	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,470 (-8%)	6mo	$300,000	$121	48
9923 Eden Valley Dr	0.53mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,035 (+13%)	6mo	$499,000	$164	40
1110 Arden Forest Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,388 (-11%)	2mo	$399,000	$167	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,144
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-107,514
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 666
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$573 /mo · $6,880/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,850

Max offer price $248,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-151	+0% $-234	+5% $-316	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-334	+0% $-234	+5% $-133	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-160	base $-234	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10502 Chestnut Path Way Tomball, TX	5.0	3.0	2603	$2,500	$0.96	0d	1	0.42mi
19418 Sandy Woods Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,000	$1.00	26d	1	0.50mi
9738 Birdsnest Ct Spring, TX	5.0	4.0	3006	$3,400	$1.13	21d	1	1.16mi
12031 Canyon Falls Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.27mi
9715 Haleys Comet Cir Tomball, TX	3.0	3.0	2400	$1,899	$0.79	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $289,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$6,880
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,848
• After-tax cash flow: $-955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-10-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-09-07 Price Changed $183,000 HARMLS
• 2017-08-07 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-08-25 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2016-07-13 Listed $179,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,880 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.