14611 S Lakewood Ave · Bixby, OK 74008

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2018 Est $220k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION NEXT TO GOLF COURSE!! The Franklin Floor Plan features a breakfast bar large enough for entertaining. Granite in kitchen along with stainless appliances. This Home is Under Construction and Should be complete by February. Bixby Schools.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Granite in kitchen
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR
• GRANITE IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-508/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bixby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bixby (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #15 of 270 in OK (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $245k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,861 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,364
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5974 E 146th Pl S	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,139 (-8%)	11mo	$223,000	$196	73
6037 E 147th St S	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+11%)	8mo	$244,900	$179	72
5976 E 147th St S	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+8%)	11mo	$225,000	$168	71
5770 E 146th Pl S	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+13%)	2mo	$235,000	$168	69
5897 E 148th St S	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+4%)	16mo	$238,900	$185	69
5922 E 148th Pl S	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+7%)	11mo	$222,500	$168	67
5959 E 148th St S	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+4%)	21mo	$230,000	$178	65
5919 E 148th St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+14%)	3mo	$247,000	$175	65
5721 E 146th St S	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+11%)	11mo	$250,000	$182	64
5918 E 147th Pl S	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+14%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	52
14876 S Hudson Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,139 (-8%)	22mo	$225,000	$198	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,731
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,065
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74008

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,717/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,042

Max offer price $237,527

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $27	+0% $-42	+5% $-112	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-121	+0% $-42	+5% $36	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $20	base $-42	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5839 E 148th Pl S Bixby, OK	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,850	$1.47	2d	1	0.27mi
14681 S 82nd East Ave Bixby, OK	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,810	$1.86	2d	11	1.36mi
7532 E 158th St S Bixby, OK	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,600	$1.08	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus $153,570 Closed 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION NEXT TO GOLF COURSE!! The Franklin Floor Plan features a breakfast bar large enough for entertaining. Granite in kitchen along with stainless appliances. This Home is Under Construction and Should be complete by February. Bixby Schools.

17. 2019-02-08
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION NEXT TO GOLF COURSE!! The Franklin Floor Plan features a breakfast bar large enough for entertaining. Granite in kitchen along with stainless appliances. This Home is Under Construction and Should be complete by February. Bixby Schools.

18. 2019-01-04
    listed $153,570 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION NEXT TO GOLF COURSE!! The Franklin Floor Plan features a breakfast bar large enough for entertaining. Granite in kitchen along with stainless appliances. This Home is Under Construction and Should be complete by February. Bixby Schools.

19. 2019-01-01
    historical
20. 2018-12-10
    listed $156,570 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,717
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bixby
• NCES district ID: 4004500
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $75,727
• Composite: 34.9/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #15 of 270 in OK

Livability — Bixby

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bixby, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• City population: 34,006
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 34,006
• Household income: $104,000
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.20%
• Current HPI: 195.2538
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+56.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $245,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) $153,570 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-02-08 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-01-04 Listed $153,570 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-01-01 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-12-10 Listed $156,570 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,717 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.