807 Dr Martin Luther King Jr Pl N · Conroe, TX 77301

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1972 6,599 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick home with classic design and excellent potential for customization. The interior includes a comfortable living room with fireplace, dining area, and a practical kitchen setup. With both a full and half bath, the layout supports a variety of living arrangements. Outside, mature trees and a wood privacy fence create a quiet, private atmosphere. A great opportunity for buyers seeking a property they can tailor to their vision.

Key facts

• Wood privacy fence
• 6,599 sq ft lot
• Built 1972

Tags

• COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCE
• QUIET PRIVATE ATMOSPHERE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,047
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -0.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 Dr Martin Luther King Jr Pl N	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,309 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$115	100
718 Silverdale Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+3%)	0mo	$152,500	$113	66
521 S 12th St Unit A	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	19mo	$109,000	$90	54
4 Eastwood Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+8%)	7mo	$145,000	$102	52
719 Silverdale	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (+4%)	19mo	$200,000	$147	48
1609 Cantrell Blvd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+1%)	19mo	$190,000	$143	46
1604 Leafhopper Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+4%)	14mo	$215,000	$157	45
804 Avenue E	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (-14%)	11mo	$99,000	$88	43
1403 Maryann Ln	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (-12%)	15mo	$599,000	$520	35
1010 Long St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,467 (+12%)	8mo	$183,000	$125	33
1610 Katydid Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+10%)	23mo	$219,900	$153	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,878
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-892
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,904/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $276	+0% $233	+5% $191	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $171	+0% $233	+5% $295	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $272	base $233	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1299 S 7th St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,350	$1.40	19d	1	0.40mi
1303 S 2nd St Unit 4 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	890	$950	$1.07	44d	1	0.59mi
1303 S 2nd St Unit 8 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	890	$950	$1.07	16d	1	0.59mi
817 Lovebug Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,595	$1.25	13d	1	0.71mi
805 Belvedere Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,624	$1.03	21d	1	0.77mi
1611 Hazelwood St Unit A Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,145	$1.14	25d	1	0.79mi
511 N 3rd St Conroe, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	4d	1	0.79mi
1710 Leafhopper Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,830	$1.06	25d	1	0.85mi
816 Lightningbug Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,724	$1.13	21d	1	0.88mi
317 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	930	$1,020	$1.10	44d	1	0.89mi
1442 Natural Pine Trl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1848	$1,656	$0.90	15d	1	0.93mi
1723 Hazelwood St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.95mi
200 Montrose Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,485	$0.88	13d	1	0.99mi
500 Hickerson St Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1165	$1,456	$1.25	6d	3	1.03mi
1933 Argo Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,324	$1.37	25d	7	1.11mi
1206 S Frazier St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,315	$1.10	44d	1	1.27mi
311 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,299	$0.98	2d	1	1.31mi
701 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,399	$1.21	0d	1	1.31mi
707 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,245	$1.07	44d	1	1.32mi
115 Lillian St Unit LL115 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	6d	1	1.37mi
407 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	940	$1,050	$1.12	6d	3	1.39mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2143 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,188	$1.23	44d	1	1.48mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2119 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,905	$1.66	44d	1	1.48mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,353	$1.40	8d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,388	$1.44	13d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	973	$1,854	$1.91	8d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,032	$2.32	2d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,623	$1.41	13d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,623	$1.41	0d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,572	$1.37	0d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,337	$1.38	0d	1	1.49mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,698	$1.48	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Active 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Brick home with classic design and excellent potential for customization. The interior includes a comfortable living room with fireplace, dining area, and a practical kitchen setup. With both a full and half bath, the layout supports a variety of living arrangements. Outside, mature trees and a wood privacy fence create a quiet, private atmosphere. A great opportunity for buyers seeking a property they can tailor to their vision.

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Brick home with classic design and excellent potential for customization. The interior includes a comfortable living room with fireplace, dining area, and a practical kitchen setup. With both a full and half bath, the layout supports a variety of living arrangements. Outside, mature trees and a wood privacy fence create a quiet, private atmosphere. A great opportunity for buyers seeking a property they can tailor to their vision.

3. 2026-05-05
   price $150,000 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Brick home with classic design and excellent potential for customization. The interior includes a comfortable living room with fireplace, dining area, and a practical kitchen setup. With both a full and half bath, the layout supports a variety of living arrangements. Outside, mature trees and a wood privacy fence create a quiet, private atmosphere. A great opportunity for buyers seeking a property they can tailor to their vision.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $185,000 Active 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Brick home with classic design and excellent potential for customization. The interior includes a comfortable living room with fireplace, dining area, and a practical kitchen setup. With both a full and half bath, the layout supports a variety of living arrangements. Outside, mature trees and a wood privacy fence create a quiet, private atmosphere. A great opportunity for buyers seeking a property they can tailor to their vision.

5. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-05
   historical
7. 2025-11-26
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,904 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$841/yr (+$70/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,904
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $165,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,904 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.