169 Ridge Rd · Puxico, MO 63966

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition $62/sqft · 31% below area Est $204k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home offering 2272 +/- sq ft. and endless potential! Featuring soaring ceilings, 2 fireplaces and a unique multi-level layout, this property is ready for your vision. Situated on a shaded lot with trees and an attached garage, this home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize and build equity. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this property into something special!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1981
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-612/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Puxico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#253 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Puxico R-VIII (rural): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #111 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,930 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,794
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -31.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Wayne 521	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-11%)	11mo	$179,900	$89	60
19 Perch Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,977 (-13%)	13mo	$244,900	$124	58
111 Brownie Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,352 (+4%)	9mo	$219,900	$93	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $38,642
• Equity at exit: $89,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $115,862
• Equity at exit: $163,716

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63966

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $132,524

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-3	+0% $-51	+5% $-99	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-97	+0% $-51	+5% $-5	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-15	base $-51	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $139,900 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home offering 2272 +/- sq ft. and endless potential! Featuring soaring ceilings, 2 fireplaces and a unique multi-level layout, this property is ready for your vision. Situated on a shaded lot with trees and an attached garage, this home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize and build equity. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this property into something special!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on the roof, exterior, and bathrooms, to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant damage
• Major exterior siding — Vines and potential water damage
• Major bathrooms — Outdated fixtures and possible mold

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Vines and potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Outdated fixtures and possible mold	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puxico R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2925650
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,269
• Composite: 36.66/100
• National rank: #4613
• State rank: #111 of 324 in MO

Livability — Puxico

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #12278

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,183

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,005 people
• By 2030: 12,767 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,319 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 11,828 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 10,806 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 9,610 · -26.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.4% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.6pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+64.4 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Current HPI: 180.2321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid