3609 Grace Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40517

$210,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1972 9,901 sqft lot Est $303k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great, brick ranch on a finished basement — offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a VERY spacious backyard. This house presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and enhance a solid property over time and/or those looking for their next investment opportunity. Priced under $200,000, this one is a rare opportunity in today's market! Inspections are welcomed, but this property is to be sold as-is.

Key facts

• 9,901 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 133 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 9,901 sq ft

Interior

• Interior features: 2,080 total living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,141/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2743% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,008
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1300 Ox Hill Dr	0.19mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	24mo	$271,500	$136	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,026
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $38,307
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40517

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $210,000 Active
17. 2026-02-03
    soldstatus $190,000
18. 2026-01-30
    soldstatus $190,000 Closed 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Great, brick ranch on a finished basement — offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a VERY spacious backyard. This house presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and enhance a solid property over time and/or those looking for their next investment opportunity. Priced under $200,000, this one is a rare opportunity in today's market! Inspections are welcomed, but this property is to be sold as-is.

19. 2026-01-22
    status Pending 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Great, brick ranch on a finished basement — offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a VERY spacious backyard. This house presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and enhance a solid property over time and/or those looking for their next investment opportunity. Priced under $200,000, this one is a rare opportunity in today's market! Inspections are welcomed, but this property is to be sold as-is.

20. 2026-01-21
    listed $190,000 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Great, brick ranch on a finished basement — offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a VERY spacious backyard. This house presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and enhance a solid property over time and/or those looking for their next investment opportunity. Priced under $200,000, this one is a rare opportunity in today's market! Inspections are welcomed, but this property is to be sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$911/yr (+$76/mo · 101.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$1,716
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $1,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $4,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 35,656
• Household income: $53,670
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2743.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.53%
• Current HPI: 248.0466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.52%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $210,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) $190,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $190,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2015): $895 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.