5870 Wilson Pl · Claypool, AZ 85539

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 2000 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in claypool Arizona on this 5,700 sq ft lot has all new water lines gas heat and AC owner financing available with 25,000 down conventional loan

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#48 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.71%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $35,415
• Equity at exit: $12,961

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $94,130
• Equity at exit: $7,843

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $7,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and improvements to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior framing — Exposed framing and incomplete construction.
• Major Foundation — Exposed framing and incomplete construction.
• Major Roof — No visible roof in the satellite image, likely needs replacement.
• Major Landscaping — No visible landscaping in the satellite image, needs improvement.
• Major Windows — No visible windows in the satellite image, likely needs replacement.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image, likely needs installation or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete exterior construction — Completing the exterior would make the home move-in ready and visually appealing.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Both HVAC installation — Installing a reliable HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Windows replacement — Replacing old or damaged windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal.
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the roof would ensure the home's structural integrity and improve its overall appearance.
• Both Interior finishing — Finishing the interior would make the home move-in ready and enhance its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior framing · Exposed framing and incomplete construction.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation · Exposed framing and incomplete construction.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No visible roof in the satellite image, likely needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · No visible landscaping in the satellite image, needs improvement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No visible windows in the satellite image, likely needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image, likely needs installation or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete exterior construction — Completing the exterior would make the home move-in ready and visually appealing. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both HVAC installation — Installing a reliable HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Windows replacement — Replacing old or damaged windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the roof would ensure the home's structural integrity and improve its overall appearance. ↑
• Both Interior finishing — Finishing the interior would make the home move-in ready and enhance its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Claypool

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #8966

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Claypool, AZ
• City population: 374
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com