9315 Pinewood Ct · Lake Timberline, MO 63628

$127,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Other public records

Built 1974 0.63 ac lot $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of potential in this 5 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in Lake Timberline with 2,048 square feet of adjusted living space! Enjoy access to ALL of the Lakes in this private gated Lake Community! Large deck for BBQ's and entertaining during the summer and wood burning fireplace to enjoy in the winter. TONS of storage space!!! Property features central heat/air, wood floors, outdoor storage shed, basement garage, three level lots and more. Property to be sold AS IS, but Homeowner is offering a Home Warranty!

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Parkside Elem. (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 367 students, 62% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,708
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,955
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63628

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $127,000
3. 2014-09-19
   soldstatus 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Lots of potential in this 5 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in Lake Timberline with 2,048 square feet of adjusted living space! Enjoy access to ALL of the Lakes in this private gated Lake Community! Large deck for BBQ's and entertaining during the summer and wood burning fireplace to enjoy in the winter. TONS of storage space!!! Property features central heat/air, wood floors, outdoor storage shed, basement garage, three level lots and more. Property to be sold AS IS, but Homeowner is offering a Home Warranty!

4. 2013-12-19
   listed $69,900 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Lots of potential in this 5 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in Lake Timberline with 2,048 square feet of adjusted living space! Enjoy access to ALL of the Lakes in this private gated Lake Community! Large deck for BBQ's and entertaining during the summer and wood burning fireplace to enjoy in the winter. TONS of storage space!!! Property features central heat/air, wood floors, outdoor storage shed, basement garage, three level lots and more. Property to be sold AS IS, but Homeowner is offering a Home Warranty!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$139
• After-tax cash flow: $2,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North St. Francois County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905430
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,156
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #214 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake Timberline

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Timberline, MO
• Population (ZIP): 15,864

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.15%
• Current HPI: 234.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+81.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listed $127,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-19 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-19 Listed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $811 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.