22727 Petrizzi Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,499 sqft lot $162/sqft · 9% below area Est $331k · 9% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JACKPOT!! Excellent Condition 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, w/Huge Backyard. Beautiful Grand Entry, Wood Plank Style Flooring in main living areas. Superb Kitchen with Large Island, Lots of Countertop Space, Lots of Cabinets and Storage, Large Pantry. Kitchen opens to Living Room making if perfect for entertaining friends and family. Oversized Master Bedroom and Master Bath w/double sinks, Soaking Tub & Separate Shower. 3 Spacious Secondary Bedrooms. Huge Backyard with lots of privacy & Covered Back Patio. Home backs up to a reserve so there are no neighbors behind you. Located minutes from Grand Parkway, I-10 and 290. Zoned to Award Winning Katy ISD schools. ***Rare Opportunity to Assume Sellers Existing Loan at a VERY LOW interest rate***

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Huge backyard
• Superb kitchen

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• GRAND ENTRY
• WOOD PLANK STYLE FLOORING
• SUPERB KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• LOTS OF COUNTERTOP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch El (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 1,130 students, 69% FRL); T H Mcdonald J H (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,059 students, 74% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 27% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,693 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,218
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -9.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4403 Salerno Gulf Way	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-4%)	6mo	$294,000	$165	87
22623 Loreto Costa Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-5%)	1mo	$296,000	$169	85
4523 Verona Hills Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-3%)	5mo	$305,000	$169	84
22914 San Giorgio Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+2%)	4mo	$299,999	$159	84
4311 Nervesa Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-5%)	1mo	$280,000	$159	81
22843 Castello Lakes Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,036 (+10%)	2mo	$320,000	$157	78
22818 Theodoli Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,630 (-12%)	4mo	$309,000	$190	72
4214 Fornari Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,786 (-4%)	4mo	$305,000	$171	72
4314 Sassari Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,073 (+12%)	2mo	$334,625	$161	70
4315 Isoletta Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	6mo	$280,000	$158	70
4318 Fenetre Forest St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+6%)	2mo	$310,000	$158	67
22622 Cremona Village Trl	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,092 (+13%)	6mo	$323,000	$154	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,104
• Equity at exit: $68,513

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-104,208
• Equity at exit: $68,688

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$716 /mo · $8,594/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,145

Max offer price $211,693

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-330	-5% $-414	+0% $-499	+5% $-584	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-698	-5% $-599	+0% $-499	+5% $-400	+10% $-301
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-423	base $-499	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	24d	1	0.06mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	0.10mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	7d	1	0.17mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	0d	36	0.47mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.49mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.49mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.49mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	0.49mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.50mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.50mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	7d	1	0.51mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.51mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.51mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	0d	1	0.51mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	0.51mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	0.52mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	14d	1	0.52mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	0.54mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.54mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	17d	1	0.54mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	0d	1	0.54mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	0.55mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	0.55mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	0.55mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	0.55mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	0.55mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.56mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	0.56mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.56mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	26d	1	0.57mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	0.58mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	0.58mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	3d	1	0.60mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	0d	1	0.77mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,184	$1.36	0d	1	0.82mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	13d	1	0.84mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	242	0.93mi
3819 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,050	$1.56	45d	1	0.94mi
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	45d	1	0.95mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$3,096	$1.83	3d	9	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-03-14
   price $299,900 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   JACKPOT!! Excellent Condition 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, w/Huge Backyard. Beautiful Grand Entry, Wood Plank Style Flooring in main living areas. Superb Kitchen with Large Island, Lots of Countertop Space, Lots of Cabinets and Storage, Large Pantry. Kitchen opens to Living Room making if perfect for entertaining friends and family. Oversized Master Bedroom and Master Bath w/double sinks, Soaking Tub & Separate Shower. 3 Spacious Secondary Bedrooms. Huge Backyard with lots of privacy & Covered Back Patio. Home backs up to a reserve so there are no neighbors behind you. Located minutes from Grand Parkway, I-10 and 290. Zoned to Award Winning Katy ISD schools. ***Rare Opportunity to Assume Sellers Existing Loan at a VERY LOW interest rate***

10. 2026-03-06
    listed $307,000 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    JACKPOT!! Excellent Condition 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, w/Huge Backyard. Beautiful Grand Entry, Wood Plank Style Flooring in main living areas. Superb Kitchen with Large Island, Lots of Countertop Space, Lots of Cabinets and Storage, Large Pantry. Kitchen opens to Living Room making if perfect for entertaining friends and family. Oversized Master Bedroom and Master Bath w/double sinks, Soaking Tub & Separate Shower. 3 Spacious Secondary Bedrooms. Huge Backyard with lots of privacy & Covered Back Patio. Home backs up to a reserve so there are no neighbors behind you. Located minutes from Grand Parkway, I-10 and 290. Zoned to Award Winning Katy ISD schools. ***Rare Opportunity to Assume Sellers Existing Loan at a VERY LOW interest rate***

11. 2024-09-30
    historical
12. 2024-09-13
    historical $2,300
13. 2024-08-19
    price $2,300
14. 2024-07-31
    listed $2,500
15. 2024-07-29
    listed $335,000 Active
16. 2024-03-14
    historical $2,300
17. 2024-02-19
    listed $2,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,594 · $716/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,594 · $716/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,594
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,413
• − Management: −$2,413
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$11,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a spacious backyard. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12939.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $307,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,594 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.