78 Hollister St · Rochester, NY 14605

$125,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1880 4,391 sqft lot Est $105k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cape Cod–style home offering space, flexibility, and added value with an adjoining vacant lot included in the sale. This well-maintained property features 4–5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a layout that accommodates a variety of living needs. The updated kitchen provides a modern and functional space for cooking and entertaining and flows into a formal dining room perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. A spacious first-floor bedroom and full bathroom offer convenient one-level living, ideal for guests, multi-generational living, or those seeking a main-floor primary option. Upstairs you’ll find three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with acc

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Formal dining room
• Full bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• SECOND-LEVEL BALCONY
• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,985/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 1108% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.47%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Durnan St	0.57mi	5/1.0	1,374 (-1%)	2mo	$85,000	$62	70
155 3rd St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (+0%)	2mo	$67,500	$48	70
146 Durnan St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,362 (-2%)	4mo	$43,000	$32	59
67 Keller St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-1%)	5mo	$139,900	$102	59
147 5th St	0.57mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,289 (-7%)	3mo	$150,000	$116	55
88 Rosemary Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (+3%)	5mo	$108,000	$76	55
61 Crombie St	0.50mi	5/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	2mo	$123,000	$80	52
1271 North St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,276 (-8%)	2mo	$128,900	$101	52
749 Avenue D	0.67mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,508 (+9%)	1mo	$80,000	$53	47
865 N Goodman St	0.74mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,245 (-10%)	2mo	$76,000	$61	40
188 5th St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+14%)	3mo	$65,500	$42	40
116 Barberry	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $54,121
• Equity at exit: $41,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $137,218
• Equity at exit: $54,347

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14605

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	21d	1	0.56mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.62mi
207 Lux St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1728	$2,150	$1.24	10d	1	0.63mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	43d	1	0.68mi
117 Northaven Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,975	$1.35	10d	1	1.11mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	1.14mi
59 Clark Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1728	$1,800	$1.04	2d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 241.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,012
• After-tax cash flow: $7,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 11,783
• Household income: $21,201
• Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1108.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 11% White 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 29% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Current HPI: 207.359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.