28890 Lilac Rd #80 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 312 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition 20 ac lot $157/sqft · 5% above area Est $170k · 5% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to HideAway Lake Mobile Estates! A peaceful, gated 55+ community just north of Valley Center, offering the perfect balance of privacy and convenience. Surrounded by open land and tucked away from the noise of city life, this neighborhood delivers a true country-living feel while keeping you close to essential amenities like grocery stores, restaurants, and medical offices. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional office space offers 1,140 sq. ft. of comfortable living. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the washer and dryer come with the home. Enjoy the convenience of in-home laundry, plus an office area and a large enclosed storage/workshop with direct access from inside the home. Residents of HideAway Lake Mobile Estates enjoy a well-maintained community with underground utilities, a rain-fed lake, a clubhouse, pool, laundry facilities, and more. At 1,300 ft elevation, you’re just 30 miles from the ocean, 30 miles from desert recreation, and within easy reach of San Diego, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire. If you’re looking for a home that offers comfort, convenience, and a tranquil setting, this is it.

Key facts

• Gated community
• In-home laundry
• 20 acre lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• IN-HOME LAUNDRY
• LARGE ENCLOSED STORAGE
• DIRECT ACCESS FROM INSIDE
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY
• UNDERGROUND UTILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.6% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.94%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,871
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 5.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28890 Lilac Rd #19	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	12mo	$85,000	$77	84
28890 Lilac Rd #119	0.06mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	5mo	$60,000	$55	83
28890 Lilac Rd #184	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+1%)	7mo	$213,000	$185	73
28890 Lilac Rd #108	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+3%)	6mo	$130,000	$111	70
28890 Lilac Rd #160	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	62
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 12 Spc 12	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	21mo	$107,000	$99	54
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 167 #167	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+12%)	8mo	$239,000	$187	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $48,017
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $141,122
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $1,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,332	-5% $1,270	+0% $1,209	+5% $1,147	+10% $1,085
Rent	-10% $964	-5% $1,086	+0% $1,209	+5% $1,331	+10% $1,453
Rate	-1.0pp $1,299	-0.5pp $1,254	base $1,209	+0.5pp $1,162	+1.0pp $1,115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 312 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 298 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 291 DOM
16. 2025-08-06
    listed $179,000 Active 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to HideAway Lake Mobile Estates! A peaceful, gated 55+ community just north of Valley Center, offering the perfect balance of privacy and convenience. Surrounded by open land and tucked away from the noise of city life, this neighborhood delivers a true country-living feel while keeping you close to essential amenities like grocery stores, restaurants, and medical offices. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional office space offers 1,140 sq. ft. of comfortable living. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the washer and dryer come with the home. Enjoy the convenience of in-home laundry, plus an office area and a large enclosed storage/workshop with direct access from inside the home. Residents of HideAway Lake Mobile Estates enjoy a well-maintained community with underground utilities, a rain-fed lake, a clubhouse, pool, laundry facilities, and more. At 1,300 ft elevation, you’re just 30 miles from the ocean, 30 miles from desert recreation, and within easy reach of San Diego, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire. If you’re looking for a home that offers comfort, convenience, and a tranquil setting, this is it.

17. 2024-07-11
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed Sale 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    1968 LANCER MOBILE HOME 2 Bedrooms, 2 baths for $160.000. This home is in Hide-Away Lake Mobile Home Estates, a 55+ Senior Community that is located in lovely Valley Center. This park is just behind a strip center with a large grocery store, butcher shop, restaurant, and other shopping. The park is well maintained, a gated community, with a nice rain-fed lake, a community pool, a community laundry, and a clubhouse. This home is very close to the clubhouse. This home has been remodeled and the kitchen has very nice stainless appliances. The washer and dryer will convey with the home. There is a crafting/sewing area plus a very large storage/workshop room that you just walk into from the home. This home has been Section I Termite completed. The monthly space rent here is $775.00.

18. 2024-05-25
    status Pending Sale 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    1968 LANCER MOBILE HOME 2 Bedrooms, 2 baths for $160.000. This home is in Hide-Away Lake Mobile Home Estates, a 55+ Senior Community that is located in lovely Valley Center. This park is just behind a strip center with a large grocery store, butcher shop, restaurant, and other shopping. The park is well maintained, a gated community, with a nice rain-fed lake, a community pool, a community laundry, and a clubhouse. This home is very close to the clubhouse. This home has been remodeled and the kitchen has very nice stainless appliances. The washer and dryer will convey with the home. There is a crafting/sewing area plus a very large storage/workshop room that you just walk into from the home. This home has been Section I Termite completed. The monthly space rent here is $775.00.

19. 2024-04-01
    listed $160,000 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    1968 LANCER MOBILE HOME 2 Bedrooms, 2 baths for $160.000. This home is in Hide-Away Lake Mobile Home Estates, a 55+ Senior Community that is located in lovely Valley Center. This park is just behind a strip center with a large grocery store, butcher shop, restaurant, and other shopping. The park is well maintained, a gated community, with a nice rain-fed lake, a community pool, a community laundry, and a clubhouse. This home is very close to the clubhouse. This home has been remodeled and the kitchen has very nice stainless appliances. The washer and dryer will convey with the home. There is a crafting/sewing area plus a very large storage/workshop room that you just walk into from the home. This home has been Section I Termite completed. The monthly space rent here is $775.00.

20. 2024-03-30
    historical
21. 2023-11-30
    price $160,000
22. 2023-09-28
    price $175,000
23. 2023-06-29
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,972
• − Management: −$2,972
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $12,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,974
• After-tax cash flow: $11,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home is in a fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Updating the kitchen and landscaping would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets appear dated and could be updated with modern designs.
• Minor Bathroom backsplash — The backsplash is a light pink color and could be replaced with a more modern design.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping is somewhat sparse and could be improved with additional plants and greenery.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Updating the kitchen cabinets and backsplash — Updating the kitchen cabinets and backsplash will make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.
• Rental Landscaping — Improving the landscaping will make the home more attractive to renters and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets appear dated and could be updated with modern designs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom backsplash · The backsplash is a light pink color and could be replaced with a more modern design.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is somewhat sparse and could be improved with additional plants and greenery.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Updating the kitchen cabinets and backsplash — Updating the kitchen cabinets and backsplash will make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improving the landscaping will make the home more attractive to renters and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Center, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-06 Listed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-11 Sold (MLS) $145,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-04-01 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $185,000 CRMLS