281 Clay St · Weed, CA 96094

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · Other · 48 Days on market

3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming, move-in-ready home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer or a savvy investor looking to add a strong rental to their portfolio. Thoughtfully updated with brand-new flooring and fresh interior and exterior paint, the home feels bright, clean, and comfortable from the moment you step inside.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4; Lot dimensions approximately 35 x 80 (0.07 acre)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Asbestos construction material; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Interior features: Electric oven; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($746/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.6% in Weed — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,282 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Weed Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,187 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $165k implies a 511% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,885 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-22,852
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,101
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96094

• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,250

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $109	+0% $62	+5% $15	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $10	+0% $62	+5% $115	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $104	base $62	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
294 Butte St Weed, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	45d	1	0.02mi
44 W Lake St Weed, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	22d	1	0.19mi
550 Shastina Dr Unit 16 Weed, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	14d	1	0.72mi
643 S Weed Blvd Weed, CA	2.0	1.0	630	$1,400	$2.22	22d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2001-05-11
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 95.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$508
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weed Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641980
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,232
• Composite: 23.57/100
• National rank: #13270
• State rank: #1187 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weed

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1282
• US rank: #26484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weed, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,674

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.11%
• Current HPI: 152.605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+511.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $165,000 SMLS
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $643 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.