825 E 11th Ct · Panama City, FL 32401

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1950 8,233 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors & First-Time Home Buyers! Don't miss this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 825 E 11th Ct, Panama City, FL 32401. Perfectly situated in the heart of Panama City, this property offers convenience, potential, and affordability all in one. This cozy home features a functional layout with a dedicated utility room and a welcoming front porch--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2018 and an HVAC system updated in 2022. Location Highlights: Centrally located near downtown Panama City, shopping, dining, schools, and local amenities--making it a great option for homeowners or rental investmen

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Roof replaced
• Hvac system updated

Tags

• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC SYSTEM UPDATED
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence zoning (City, Residential Single Family)
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining room (12.9 x 11.2); Electric Range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (11.25 x 10.29); Bedroom (11 x 9.4)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (6.5 x 5.68)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating
• Interior features: Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (10 x 9.9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 258 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.25%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
825 E 12th St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	3mo	$230,000	$191	85
713 E 10th Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	8mo	$225,000	$195	69
900 Wilson Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-1%)	7mo	$255,000	$201	67
1001 Cypress Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-6%)	8mo	$75,000	$62	66
1332 N Palo Alto Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-11%)	4mo	$150,000	$132	63
910 E 9th Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,111 (-13%)	5mo	$225,000	$203	62
1514 Louisiana Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-7%)	2mo	$245,000	$206	61
909 Louisiana Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,137 (-11%)	5mo	$240,000	$211	59
1210 Hamilton Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-12%)	7mo	$255,000	$227	59
1114 Mckenzie Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$190	58
722 Williams Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (-8%)	1mo	$91,200	$78	49
678 Cypress Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-7%)	7mo	$206,000	$173	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $22,706
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $61,912
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $907

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $768	+0% $734	+5% $700	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $589	-5% $662	+0% $734	+5% $807	+10% $879
Rate	-1.0pp $795	-0.5pp $765	base $734	+0.5pp $703	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1114 Mc Kenzie Ave Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,850	$2.10	21d	1	0.62mi
725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	21d	1	0.91mi
540 E 4th Ct Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	21d	1	0.98mi
329 N Palo Alto Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	14d	1	1.09mi
265 15th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,462	$1.51	14d	4	1.13mi
1525 Oak Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	21d	1	1.14mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	14d	25	1.16mi
300 Mercedes Ave Unit 1523335P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,807	$3.19	21d	1	1.23mi
2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	21d	1	1.35mi
2121 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	21d	13	1.39mi
603 E 2nd St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $119,900
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $124,000 Active
4. 2017-12-01
   historical
5. 2017-04-10
   listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 118.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $7,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,947
• Household income: $52,523
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.12%
• Current HPI: 290.3312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $119,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $124,000 CPARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2017-04-10 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.