5813 SE 230th Ter · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2004 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In excellent condition 4 bedrooms for a big family. Home built in 2004-located in great family neighborhood - 1471 square feet with 1 car garage and covered back porch. Easy commute to Gainesville, Ocala and Palatka.

Key facts

• Paved road frontage
• Spacious lot
• City water

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• HEAVILY WOODED BACKDROP
• HARDIE BOARD SIDING
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• PAVED ROAD FRONTAGE
• CITY WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homesteaded property
• HOA & community: No association; Development: Ashley Oaks

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Approximately 0.36 acre lot (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-591/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,303 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,789
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,643
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,631/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $156,307

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,631 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,631 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,631
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawthorne, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1550.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-14 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-08 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-22 Listed $149,895 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $103,900 Public Records
• 2004-07-09 Sold (MLS) $103,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-03 Listed $103,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,631 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.