2434 Merlot St · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$329,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,255 sqft · Townhouse · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 $263/sqft · at area comps Est $337k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience comfortable, low-maintenance living at 2430 Merlot Street in Fort Lupton's growing Vista Meadows community. This D. R. Horton Palmer paired home offers a modern two-story layout designed to make everyday living both functional and stylish. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,255 square feet of well-planned space-ideal for buyers looking for a streamlined home without compromising on quality. Inside, the open main level creates a welcoming flow, while the kitchen stands out with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and clean, contemporary finishes. Built-in smart home features add ease and efficiency to your daily routine. One of the standout benefits is included landscaping, allowing for a smoother move-in experience and less upkeep from day one. As part of Vista Meadows' newest paired-home collection, the Palmer plan is thoughtfully designed for homeowners who appreciate modern design, energy efficiency, and a simplified lifestyle. Whether you're purchasing your first home, downsizing, or simply ready for something new, this home offers an excellent opportunity to enjoy everything the Colorado lifestyle has to offer. Make your move to Vista Meadows-schedule a tour today and see this home for yourself. * Estimated completion: June 2026 * Photos are for representational purposes only; finishes and features may vary.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Energy efficiency
• Included landscaping

Tags

• MODERN TWO STORY LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT IN SMART HOME FEATURES
• INCLUDED LANDSCAPING
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $284,500 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,748
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -2.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2360 Merlot St	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	2mo	$337,995	$269	94
2356 Merlot St	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	2mo	$337,995	$269	94
2407 Pinot Pl	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	3mo	$337,500	$269	94
2403 Pinot Pl	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	3mo	$336,000	$268	94
2415 Pinot Pl	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	3mo	$337,495	$269	94
2411 Pinot Pl	0.05mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	3mo	$334,995	$267	93
2344 Merlot St	0.07mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$267	93
624 S Cabernet Ave	0.16mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	6mo	$334,995	$267	86
604 S Cabernet Ave	0.19mi	2/3.0	1,255 (0%)	6mo	$340,000	$271	84
640 S Cabernet Ave	0.13mi	2/4.0	1,255 (0%)	10mo	$346,400	$276	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-55,473
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-50,781
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,948/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $325,224

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $82	+0% $-32	+5% $-146	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-145	+0% $-32	+5% $80	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $52	base $-32	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	5d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $329,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $337,995 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $337,995 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $337,995 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $337,995 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $337,995 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $337,995 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,995 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $337,995 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,995 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,995 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,995 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $337,995 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,995 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $337,995 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    historical
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $352,890 Active
18. 2026-03-24
    listed $352,890 Active 1392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1392 chars)

    Experience comfortable, low-maintenance living at 2430 Merlot Street in Fort Lupton's growing Vista Meadows community. This D. R. Horton Palmer paired home offers a modern two-story layout designed to make everyday living both functional and stylish. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,255 square feet of well-planned space-ideal for buyers looking for a streamlined home without compromising on quality. Inside, the open main level creates a welcoming flow, while the kitchen stands out with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and clean, contemporary finishes. Built-in smart home features add ease and efficiency to your daily routine. One of the standout benefits is included landscaping, allowing for a smoother move-in experience and less upkeep from day one. As part of Vista Meadows' newest paired-home collection, the Palmer plan is thoughtfully designed for homeowners who appreciate modern design, energy efficiency, and a simplified lifestyle. Whether you're purchasing your first home, downsizing, or simply ready for something new, this home offers an excellent opportunity to enjoy everything the Colorado lifestyle has to offer. Make your move to Vista Meadows-schedule a tour today and see this home for yourself. * Estimated completion: June 2026 * Photos are for representational purposes only; finishes and features may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,948
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,731
• − Management: −$2,731
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$5,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2026-04-04 Listed $352,890 IRES
• 2026-03-24 Listed $352,890 Zillow