102 Newport Ln · Emerald Bay, TX 75757

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1975 0.39 ac lot $94/sqft · 46% below area Est $444k · 46% under $400/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open patio
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• OPEN PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($326/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,096
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -45.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Williamsburg Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,644 (+4%)	3mo	$385,000	$146	64
103 Williamsburg Ln	0.60mi	3/3.5	2,650 (+4%)	2mo	$394,900	$149	57
104 Williamsburg Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,364 (-7%)	9mo	$345,000	$146	55
228 S Bay Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	22mo	$449,900	$159	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,722
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-28,040
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,153/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $95	+0% $27	+5% $-41	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-88	+0% $27	+5% $142	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $88	base $27	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 N Bay Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	2324	$3,000	$1.29	14d	1	0.24mi
21175 County Road 1291 Flint, TX	2.0	2.5	3036	$2,500	$0.82	45d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,900 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $249,900 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

18. 2026-04-14
    price $264,900 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

19. 2026-02-26
    price $279,900 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

20. 2026-01-26
    price $284,900 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

21. 2025-12-09
    listed $289,900 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home with 2 car swing drive, open patio and fenced backyard in the gated coummunity of Emerald Bay. Freddie Mac's First Look expires 1-4-26. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

22. 2025-09-25
    soldstatus
23. 2024-04-08
    price $359,000
24. 2024-04-08
    price $359,000
25. 2024-03-04
    listed $365,000 Active
26. 2024-03-04
    listed $365,000 Active
27. 2022-06-14
    soldstatus
28. 2022-06-14
    soldstatus
29. 2022-05-11
    listed $299,900
30. 1998-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,153 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,153 · $513/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$6,153
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,792
• − Management: −$2,792
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $359,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $359,000 GTAR
• 2024-03-04 Listed $365,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $365,000 GTAR
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-14 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-05-11 Listed $299,900 GTAR
• 1998-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,153 · +21.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.