13505 Spruce Grv · Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95457

$335,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1944 15 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Endless possibilities! Just over 15 acres with the potential for a second home and room to roam. The home was originally built in 1944. It has been gutted to the studs, and square footage has been expanded to approximately 1300 SF. Permits have been pulled, and plans are available to finish the home. A second home could be built on the property with spectacular views! The parcel is mostly fenced, with an area for gardens and livestock. The well and pump have been recently replaced. The property includes an easement to a water cistern across from the house. Dream big because this property has the potential to make your dreams come true!

Key facts

• 15 acres
• Area for livestock
• Area for gardens

Tags

• 15 ACRES
• PERMITS HAVE BEEN PULLED
• PLANS ARE AVAILABLE
• MOSTLY FENCED
• AREA FOR GARDENS
• AREA FOR LIVESTOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor-listed lot size and year-built source; Property is a single-unit parcel; No ADU
• HOA & community: Community features include horse trails, golf course, hiking, fishing, BLM/National Forest access, foothills, lake, preserve/public land, park, and hunting

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Uncovered parking; RV access/parking and RV potential
• Utilities: Well and cistern water; Holding tank sewer; Electricity connected; Utilities - overhead
• Home design: House; Single story; Secluded setting; Up slope from street; Lot shape is irregular; Ranch-style parcel with pasture; No landscaping
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Patio (see remarks); Shed; Wire fencing; Has view; Fishing access in the community

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Cooling available (see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on main level; Under construction; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (see remarks)

🏗️ New construction. The $335,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $539,890.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (52.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lower Lake Elementary (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,376 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 752 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,517 (52.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.29% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.02%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 28.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,890
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -37.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-111,470
• Equity at exit: $191,981

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-153,241
• Equity at exit: $261,165

Cash invested: $151,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95457

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,567/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-2,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,139

Max offer price $183,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,712	-5% $-1,865	+0% $-2,018	+5% $-2,171	+10% $-2,323
Rent	-10% $-2,143	-5% $-2,080	+0% $-2,018	+5% $-1,955	+10% $-1,893
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,746	-0.5pp $-1,881	base $-2,018	+0.5pp $-2,158	+1.0pp $-2,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,972
• Closing costs: $16,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $335,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $335,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $335,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $335,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $350,000 Active 643-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,242
• − Property taxes: −$2,567
• − Insurance: −$2,699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,522
• − Management: −$1,522
• − Depreciation: −$15,706
• Taxable loss: −$35,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,457
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hidden Valley Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #22539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,721
• Population (ZIP): 3,036

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $350,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,567 · +120.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.