Chappell Plan · Converse, TX 78109

$171,049

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 350 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $171,049 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $211,121.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $171k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-613/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $150,523 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,121
• List price: $171,049
• Delta: -18.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11557 Cinnamon Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$160,999	$134	87
11521 Cinnamon Rose	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$156,999	$131	84
1814 Musk Rose	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	7mo	$211,999	$167	77
2303 Camellia Rose	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$178,099	$148	77
1838 Musk Rose	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	8mo	$202,999	$160	76
1862 Musk Rose	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	9mo	$202,899	$160	76
11533 Cinnamon Rose	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	2mo	$196,999	$145	64
11513 Cinnamon Rose	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	2mo	$198,999	$147	63
11553 Cinnamon Rose	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	1mo	$164,999	$120	62
11525 Chestnut Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	8mo	$206,999	$153	60
11516 Chestnut Rose	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	7mo	$225,999	$167	60
2315 Camellia Rose	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	9mo	$174,049	$126	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-42,662
• Equity at exit: $31,479

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-61,417
• Equity at exit: $18,254

Cash invested: $59,114 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,167/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $203,724

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,780
• Closing costs: $6,334
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11602 Dog Rose Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	0.22mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1112	$1,229	$1.11	1d	1	0.89mi
3106 Drayton Ests Converse, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,102	$1.21	1d	1	1.04mi
11019 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,425	$1.00	43d	1	1.13mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	4d	1	1.17mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	1d	1	1.40mi
3130 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,885	$1.32	4d	1	1.42mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,049 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,049 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,049 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $171,049 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $170,349 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 341 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 340 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,999 Active 339 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,999 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-02-13
    price $169,999 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2025-11-17
    price $180,499 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-09-01
    price $185,499 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-07-03
    listed $192,499 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,826
• − Property taxes: −$3,167
• − Insurance: −$1,056
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$6,142
• Taxable loss: −$4,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of style and functionality, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior to a neutral color — Neutral colors can enhance curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior to a neutral color — Neutral colors can enhance curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — Converse

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 63,067
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $180,499 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $185,499 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Listed $192,499 Zillow