Chappell Plan · Converse, TX 78109

$180,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 448 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $180,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $210,984.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1757 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,279 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,984
• List price: $180,999
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11507 Field Briar	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$121	94
11557 Cinnamon Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	5mo	$160,999	$134	84
11521 Cinnamon Rose	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	5mo	$156,999	$131	82
1814 Musk Rose	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	10mo	$211,999	$167	75
1838 Musk Rose	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	11mo	$202,999	$160	73
2126 French Rose	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	2mo	$186,749	$135	63
11533 Cinnamon Rose	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	5mo	$196,999	$145	61
2118 French Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	3mo	$165,349	$120	61
11513 Cinnamon Rose	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	5mo	$198,999	$147	60
11553 Cinnamon Rose	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	4mo	$164,999	$120	60
11525 Chestnut Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	11mo	$206,999	$153	58
11516 Chestnut Rose	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	10mo	$225,999	$167	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-49,754
• Equity at exit: $31,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,615
• Equity at exit: $18,242

Cash invested: $59,076 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $201,499 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 382 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1757
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,106
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,165/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,846

Max offer price $186,423

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-97	+0% $-170	+5% $-243	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-234	+0% $-170	+5% $-105	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-116	base $-170	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,746
• Closing costs: $6,330
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11767 Arctic Rose Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	24d	1	0.08mi
11653 Dog Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,449	$0.98	10d	1	0.13mi
11559 Field Briar Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,395	$1.01	10d	1	0.15mi
11602 Dog Rose Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,650	$1.22	119d	1	0.22mi
11507 Field Briar Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	10d	1	0.24mi
2235 Camellia Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	6d	1	0.28mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,262	$1.27	0d	1	0.89mi
3106 Drayton Ests Converse, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,102	$1.21	0d	1	1.05mi
2818 Praline Fry Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	84d	1	1.11mi
11019 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,425	$1.00	139d	1	1.13mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	100d	1	1.17mi
2927 Citron Gdn Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,565	$1.10	7d	1	1.21mi
2927 Citron Gdn Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,565	$1.10	6d	1	1.21mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	56d	1	1.40mi
3130 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,885	$1.32	100d	1	1.42mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	139d	1	1.48mi
3306 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,425	$0.98	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $180,999 Active 448 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $180,999 Active 447 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $180,999 Active 446 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $180,999 Active 445 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $180,999 Active 444 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $180,999 Active 443 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $180,999 Active 442 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $180,999 Active 441 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $180,999 Active 440 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $180,999 Active 439 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $180,999 Active 438 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    price $180,999 Active 437 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $180,799 Active 437 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $180,799 Active 436 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $178,799 Active 435 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $178,599 Active 429 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $178,599 Active 428 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $178,599 Active 427 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $178,599 Active 423 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $178,599 Active 422 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $178,599 Active 421 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $178,599 Active 420 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $178,599 Active 419 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $178,599 Active 418 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $178,599 Active 417 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    price $178,599 Active 416 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $178,399 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $178,399 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $178,399 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $178,399 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $178,399 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    price $178,399 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-08-18
    days on market $178,199 Active 411 DOM
34. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $178,199 Active 410 DOM
35. 2026-08-16
    days on market $177,999 Active 409 DOM
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $177,999 Active 408 DOM
37. 2026-08-14
    days on market $177,999 Active 407 DOM
38. 2026-08-13
    days on market $177,999 Active 406 DOM
39. 2026-08-12
    days on market $177,999 Active 405 DOM
40. 2026-08-11
    days on market $177,999 Active 404 DOM
41. 2026-08-10
    days on market $177,999 Active 403 DOM
42. 2026-08-09
    price $177,999 Active 402 DOM
43. 2026-08-09
    days on market $177,799 Active 402 DOM
44. 2026-08-08
    days on market $177,799 Active 401 DOM
45. 2026-08-06
    days on market $177,799 Active 399 DOM
46. 2026-08-05
    days on market $177,799 Active 398 DOM
47. 2026-08-04
    days on market $177,799 Active 397 DOM
48. 2026-08-03
    days on market $177,799 Active 396 DOM
49. 2026-07-31
    days on market $177,799 Active 393 DOM
50. 2026-07-30
    days on market $177,799 Active 391 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,818
• − Property taxes: −$3,165
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$6,138
• Taxable loss: −$5,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of style and functionality, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior to a neutral color — Neutral colors can enhance curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Converse

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 63,067
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $180,499 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $185,499 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Listed $192,499 Zillow