45 Rose Ln · Williamsville, MO 63967

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Built 1950 5,227 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $101k · at est. ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits just 1/4 mile from Chaonia Landing, offering quick and easy access to boating, fishing, and relaxing days on the water. Inside, you’ll love the open living room and kitchen layout that creates a bright, connected space perfect for gathering with family and friends or unwinding after a day at the lake. Step outside to enjoy the nice back deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening cookouts. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a potential Airbnb or Vrbo investment opportunity, this charming home is full of comfort and possibility in a fantastic location. Call today before gone tomorrow!

Key facts

• Nice back deck
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM AND KITCHEN
• NICE BACK DECK
• POTENTIAL AIRBNB INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-578/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#588 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Greenville R-II (rural): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #228 of 324 in MO (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenville Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 302 students, 64% FRL); Greenville Jr. High (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 106 students, 64% FRL); Greenville High (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 214 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,289 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,189
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -1.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,524
• Equity at exit: $49,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $47,055
• Equity at exit: $80,677

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63967

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $92,925

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-14	+0% $-48	+5% $-83	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-80	+0% $-48	+5% $-16	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-23	base $-48	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-02-26
    listed $99,900 Active 679-char remark

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits just 1/4 mile from Chaonia Landing, offering quick and easy access to boating, fishing, and relaxing days on the water. Inside, you’ll love the open living room and kitchen layout that creates a bright, connected space perfect for gathering with family and friends or unwinding after a day at the lake. Step outside to enjoy the nice back deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening cookouts. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a potential Airbnb or Vrbo investment opportunity, this charming home is full of comfort and possibility in a fantastic location. Call today before gone tomorrow!

18. 2025-11-03
    price $115,000
19. 2025-07-03
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$780
• − Management: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$2,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $-25/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville R-II
• NCES district ID: 2913380
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,394
• Composite: 29.08/100
• National rank: #6599
• State rank: #228 of 324 in MO

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #20851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,416

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,005 people
• By 2030: 12,767 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,319 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 11,828 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 10,806 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 9,610 · -26.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.4% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.6pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+64.4 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 182.0301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid