9501 Kirchner Ave · Lemay, MO 63125

$43,100

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1950 4,800 sqft lot $41/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch. Property selling in AS IS condition. Submit offer on special sales contract with 3% earnest money or $1000 whichever is greater and proof of funds. No utilities to be turned on and seller to make no inspections or repairs. Buyer to verify schools and utilities. Property has to be on market 10 days before seller will review. All offers must be submitted by the buyer’s agent using the online offer management system. Access the system via the link below. Offer link to property: http://www.spsreo.com/?c=DT68

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 5.2% in Lemay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Hancock Place (suburban): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #251 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $298 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,807 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.42%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,455
• List price: $43,100
• Delta: -71.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Wachtel Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+4%)	0mo	$224,900	$206	80
773 Reed Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-1%)	1mo	$210,000	$203	74
9604 Gentry Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	916 (-13%)	2mo	$69,900	$76	70
939 Erskine Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	894 (-15%)	3mo	$155,000	$173	66
111 E Arlee Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,106 (+6%)	2mo	$128,500	$116	64
1402 Dammert Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-13%)	2mo	$209,900	$230	59
334 Horn Ave	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,155 (+10%)	3mo	$75,000	$65	58
9704 S Broadway	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	3mo	$80,000	$71	56
112 Mann St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	1mo	$179,900	$150	53
1625 Telegraph Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,162 (+11%)	1mo	$176,500	$152	51
704 Dallas Dr	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	999 (-5%)	2mo	$180,000	$180	51
235 Military Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+15%)	3mo	$84,900	$71	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $35,616
• Equity at exit: $6,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $86,035
• Equity at exit: $3,727

Cash invested: $12,068 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$226
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,436/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $460

Max offer price $43,100

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $692	-5% $680	+0% $668	+5% $656	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $565	-5% $616	+0% $668	+5% $719	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $690	-0.5pp $679	base $668	+0.5pp $657	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,775
• Closing costs: $1,293
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	8d	1	0.17mi
336 Lagro Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,250	$0.93	44d	1	0.28mi
349 Lagro Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1184	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	0.30mi
127 E Holden Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.40mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.40mi
229 Horn Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1301	$1,871	$1.44	2d	1	0.44mi
304 Bayless Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	2d	1	0.47mi
9809 S Broadway Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1288	$1,450	$1.13	45d	1	0.51mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.58mi
9954 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	5d	1	0.73mi
9964 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	8d	1	0.77mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	13d	1	0.98mi
274 Kingston Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	522	$1,149	$2.20	2d	4	1.08mi
8215 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	2.0	1252	$1,650	$1.32	18d	1	1.16mi
4236 Fatima Dr Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	11d	1	1.18mi
8125 Michigan Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,150	$1.44	15d	1	1.21mi
7924 Michigan Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,195	$0.96	4d	1	1.32mi
7851 Bandero Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	13d	1	1.42mi
315 Sigsbee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	1.43mi
813 W Courtois St Apt C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.44mi
807 W Courtois St Apt D St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	44d	1	1.44mi
815 W Courtois St St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	15d	1	1.44mi
812 Schirmer St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $43,100 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,100 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,100 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,100 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,100 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,100 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,100 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $43,100 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-04-09
   listed $46,800 Active 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch. Property selling in AS IS condition. Submit offer on special sales contract with 3% earnest money or $1000 whichever is greater and proof of funds. No utilities to be turned on and seller to make no inspections or repairs. Buyer to verify schools and utilities. Property has to be on market 10 days before seller will review. All offers must be submitted by the buyer’s agent using the online offer management system. Access the system via the link below. Offer link to property: http://www.spsreo.com/?c=DT68

10. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,414
• − Property taxes: −$1,436
• − Insurance: −$216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$1,254
• Taxable income: $7,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $6,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock Place
• NCES district ID: 2913620
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,890
• Composite: 27.08/100
• National rank: #7048
• State rank: #251 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lemay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemay, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,294
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $46,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,436 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.