1234 Quail Bush Rd · Homestead Valley, CA 92285

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 179 Days on market

Built 1961 Good condition 2.50 ac lot $325/sqft · 26% below area Est $176k · 26% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start Your Desert Adventure! Located in the serene and beautiful Landers, CA comes a NEWLY renovated 1 bedroom 1 bathroom recreational cabin just waiting for you to enjoy! Pulling up to this massive 2.5 acre parcel of land surrounded by vast desert landscapes and majestic mountains as far as the eye can see you will surely feel as if a weight has been lifted and a sense of freedom overcomes the pressures of city life. Walking up to the cabin you'll notice a freshly painted exterior, new stylish front door, and tasteful porchlight. As you enter you'll see concrete floors, mini-split heating and air, a well designed kitchenette with butcher block counters, and dual pane windows brining in tons of natural light! Featuring barn doors the bedroom also comes equipped with a beautiful modern ceiling fan, mini split heating and air system, and fully renovated bathroom that includes a bathtub, shower, vanity, stylish light fixture, along with a nice tile backsplash! Come take a look at this awesome opportunity today!

Key facts

• Barn doors
• Dual pane windows
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• MASSIVE 5 ACRE PARCEL
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• WELL DESIGNED KITCHENETTE
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• BARN DOORS
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,086
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -26.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $79,616
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $227,536
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92285

• Home prices YoY: 31.4%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $184	+0% $139	+5% $94	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $87	+0% $139	+5% $191	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $172	base $139	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-23
   price $129,900 1023-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

   Start Your Desert Adventure! Located in the serene and beautiful Landers, CA comes a NEWLY renovated 1 bedroom 1 bathroom recreational cabin just waiting for you to enjoy! Pulling up to this massive 2.5 acre parcel of land surrounded by vast desert landscapes and majestic mountains as far as the eye can see you will surely feel as if a weight has been lifted and a sense of freedom overcomes the pressures of city life. Walking up to the cabin you'll notice a freshly painted exterior, new stylish front door, and tasteful porchlight. As you enter you'll see concrete floors, mini-split heating and air, a well designed kitchenette with butcher block counters, and dual pane windows brining in tons of natural light! Featuring barn doors the bedroom also comes equipped with a beautiful modern ceiling fan, mini split heating and air system, and fully renovated bathroom that includes a bathtub, shower, vanity, stylish light fixture, along with a nice tile backsplash! Come take a look at this awesome opportunity today!

2. 2025-11-26
   listed $150,000 Active 1023-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

   Start Your Desert Adventure! Located in the serene and beautiful Landers, CA comes a NEWLY renovated 1 bedroom 1 bathroom recreational cabin just waiting for you to enjoy! Pulling up to this massive 2.5 acre parcel of land surrounded by vast desert landscapes and majestic mountains as far as the eye can see you will surely feel as if a weight has been lifted and a sense of freedom overcomes the pressures of city life. Walking up to the cabin you'll notice a freshly painted exterior, new stylish front door, and tasteful porchlight. As you enter you'll see concrete floors, mini-split heating and air, a well designed kitchenette with butcher block counters, and dual pane windows brining in tons of natural light! Featuring barn doors the bedroom also comes equipped with a beautiful modern ceiling fan, mini split heating and air system, and fully renovated bathroom that includes a bathtub, shower, vanity, stylish light fixture, along with a nice tile backsplash! Come take a look at this awesome opportunity today!

3. 2025-08-20
   historical
4. 2025-05-22
   price $179,000
5. 2025-02-20
   listed $199,900 Active
6. 2025-02-12
   historical
7. 2024-08-13
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$102
• After-tax cash flow: $1,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly renovated 1-bedroom cabin in the desert offers a serene and beautiful setting with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway aesthetics and security
• Both Replace porchlight — Enhances curb appeal and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway aesthetics and security ↑
• Both Replace porchlight — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Homestead Valley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,914

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 128.05%
• Current HPI: 536.4822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listed $199,900 CRMLS