3035 Chicago Ave · Lake Hamilton, FL 33844

$278,769

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This new single-story Celeste is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms. Hamilton Bluff is a new master-planned community of single-family homes for sale in Lake Hamilton, FL. Amenities include: a swimming pool, clubhouse, picnic area, tot lot, and soccer field. Close to major roads, Legoland, East Central Park, fishing, hiking and trails.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Swimming pool
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• SWIMMING POOL

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $235,650 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-56,770
• Equity at exit: $41,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-75,608
• Equity at exit: $24,103

Cash invested: $78,055 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,462
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,182/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $262,002

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-20	+0% $-116	+5% $-212	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-209	+0% $-116	+5% $-23	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-45	base $-116	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,692
• Closing costs: $8,363
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2528 Absolute Ave Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,800	$1.33	24d	1	0.08mi
2728 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,900	$1.01	24d	1	0.11mi
2756 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,350	$1.11	15d	1	0.12mi
2733 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	24d	1	0.13mi
2240 Crown Rock Bluff Dr Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,999	$1.35	15d	1	0.13mi
2451 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	24d	1	0.17mi
2405 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	24d	1	0.20mi
308 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.53mi
304 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.53mi
3857 Geranium Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.97mi
4058 Gardenia Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,995	$1.24	24d	1	0.98mi
2912 poppy ave, Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,925	$1.37	24d	1	1.02mi
4520 Ranunculus St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2290	$2,300	$1.00	15d	1	1.02mi
4434 Petunia ST Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,350	$1.11	11d	1	1.07mi
2748 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	1.13mi
2744 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,250	$1.32	4d	1	1.13mi
1712 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,000	$1.23	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   price $278,769 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $277,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,615
• − Property taxes: −$4,182
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$8,110
• Taxable loss: −$6,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #11293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 1,109
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $277,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid