9404 Thor Ave · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40229

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1962 9,936 sqft lot Est $215k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom, 1 bathroom brick ranch, detached garage. Home is in need of some repairs. Sold as is

Key facts

• 9,936 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; One story; Built in 1962
• Construction: Wood frame and brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.23 acres; Subdivision: SILVER HEIGHTS

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor; Total of 7 rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($829/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Lick Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #602 of 676 statewide, top 90%, 496 students, 77% FRL); Knight Middle (math 7% / reading 28%, grade F, #210 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 452 students, 64% FRL); Southern High (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 1,387 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,687 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9601 Polaris Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	1mo	$210,000	$205	93
9515 Titan Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	2mo	$220,000	$215	90
9710 Turnpike View Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-2%)	1mo	$210,000	$208	75
3915 Kurtz Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	8mo	$215,000	$215	74
9008 Willowcreek Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	4mo	$215,000	$210	71
4206 Kurtz Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$210	66
9802 Turnpike View Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	8mo	$200,000	$200	66
8907 Maplecreek Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+0%)	4mo	$202,000	$197	64
9704 Titan Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	900 (-12%)	7mo	$208,000	$231	61
4107 Pirate Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+8%)	2mo	$210,000	$190	58
9818 Titan Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	900 (-12%)	3mo	$200,000	$222	57
10103 Blue Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	950 (-7%)	2mo	$215,000	$226	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,291
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,839
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40229

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $119	+0% $69	+5% $20	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $11	+0% $69	+5% $127	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $114	base $69	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3814 Freedom Way Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	860	$1,300	$1.51	26d	1	0.19mi
3802 Falcon Crest Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	932	$1,192	$1.28	4d	2	0.36mi
3802 Falcon Crest Dr #232 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	964	$1,290	$1.34	14d	1	0.37mi
9001 Falcon Crest Ct #204 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	907	$1,395	$1.54	26d	1	0.43mi
8918 Elmcreek Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,600	$1.39	26d	1	0.52mi
333 Whispering Brook Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,078	$1.41	5d	1	0.55mi
333 Whispering Brook Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	796	$1,049	$1.32	0d	15	0.55mi
8832 Moody Rd Unit 8828 203 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	26d	1	0.56mi
8908 Bluebell Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1000	$1,775	$1.77	0d	1	0.61mi
4200 Narcissus Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,425	$0.95	26d	1	0.64mi
3511 Bonaventure Blvd Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	4d	7	0.78mi
9616 Cooper Church Dr Unit 404 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,370	$1.30	0d	1	0.91mi
5121 Oakwood Landings Ln Unit 403 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,505	$1.34	0d	1	0.92mi
5121 Oakwood Landings Ln Unit 103 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	936	$1,390	$1.49	0d	1	0.92mi
9906 Moore Hill Pl Unit 304 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,480	$1.32	0d	1	0.95mi
9904 Moore Hill Pl Unit 303 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,480	$1.32	0d	1	0.97mi
9922 Moore Hill Pl Unit 303 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,480	$1.32	0d	1	1.03mi
4807 Cooper Village Ter Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1606	$2,419	$1.51	0d	13	1.10mi
8923 Preston Hwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,450	$1.70	26d	2	1.10mi
8923 Preston Hwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,415	$1.70	17d	1	1.10mi
4101 Blue Lick Ct Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	26d	1	1.10mi
4103 Blue Lick Ct Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	0d	1	1.11mi
4105 Blue Lick Ct Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	26d	1	1.14mi
4109 Blue Lick Ct Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	5d	1	1.16mi
3600 Hillcross Dr Unit 5 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	26d	1	1.20mi
3600 Hillcross Dr Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	14d	1	1.20mi
3700 Hillcross Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	832	$1,599	$1.92	19d	1	1.20mi
11707 Autumn Forest Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	4d	1	1.23mi
4203 Foreman Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	865	$974	$1.13	5d	6	1.26mi
9500 Golders Green Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1347	$2,014	$1.50	0d	11	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $175,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 95-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $1,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,299
• Household income: $79,936
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.38%
• Current HPI: 244.2747
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.46%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-06-07 Listed $175,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +74.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.